BASKETBALL GURU 2020-2021 PREVIEW (Part I)

[Phoenix Suns]

Welcome to the 2020-2021 Preview -- better known as 'The Place Where the Minnesota Timberwolves' Dreams Come to Die'.

I will be evaluating all sixteen teams' off-season moves, and predicting their season-long outlook.  Or, as Larry Bird put it to his competition
after back-to-back 3-point Contest championships: "Who is coming in second?"

The Last Season rank is Points For due to Covid.

You can find my 2019-2020 preview here, and my 2018-2019 preview here.

Teams are split into Tiers.  Contenders, Dark Horses, and Tankers.  The teams in each tier are interchangeable, as the difference in projected
fantasy points per week is small.

However, given that this is an opinion piece, and it's more fun, I do rank franchises 1 through 16 and showing who I slightly favor over others.

But first, here's a word from our sponsor, the Oklahoma Board of Tourism.



As Hamlet said of his Uncle Claudius, "closer in kin than in kind."

And now, without further ado, the Guru Basketball Preview!





#1 Dallas Mavericks (Contender)

Last Season: #4

Wave after wave of lottery picks flows into the Mavericks, allowing him to make zero-risk selections like Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Anthony Edwards,
back-to-back-to-back.  Forever.

His infinite value machine will terrorize the league for decades, as he picks clean new GMs for assets, especially 1st Round picks, and completes for
championships while adding rookie-scale studs in the draft off other tanking teams' picks.

Thankfully he only added Edwards and Onyeka Okongwu, as the weak top of the draft prevented him from grabbing the next Zion.  Trust that his lidless
never-sleeping eye is fixed on Cade Cunningham in 2021, and he'll package picks to move up and grab him, assuming one of his lottery picks doesn't
allow him to draft him outright.

Mavs only move this off-season was re-signing Kristaps Porzingis to the second-highest FA price in Guru history, at a whopping $19,500,000 per year.

But make no mistake, all the contenders are within 100 fantasy points per week of each other.  If KP is out, Dallas's goes from first to NINTH in my
projections.  That's how big of an investment The Unicorn is, and his franchise's success is now inexorably intertwined with Porzingis's knees, which
is exactly what many around the league were hoping for (although none had the courage to actually bid him up to make the plan work, save one.
Cowards!)

If KP's knees don't crumble like the Western Roman Empire, then Mavs is the frontrunner.

Doncic, Morant, Ingram, Drummond, AG, Edwards, Porzingis, and Whiteside make for a formidable core, as the most valuable franchise in the league
continues to ignore actually trying to win, and just accrues more and more assets, trying to break the league and devour it like a fantasy Galactus,
hungry to engulf a group of GMs he views as incompetent pawns in a game he created and win every season without even trying, simply because
his team contains too many good assets and he claims the championship by default without ever making a win-now move.

There's a strong case to be made that Mavs is the best GM in the league.  Will anyone ever catch him?





#2 Toronto Raptors (Contender)

Last Season: #8

The Raptors closed the biggest trade of the season, shipping off Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett for Anthony Davis.

This was an extremely committal move, and we'll see how it turns out.  Given that Toronto is ranked #2, clearly it seems to be a solid one.  Taking on
AD is low-risk, he's still young and while injury-prone, it's typically minor and he's been healthy for the most part.  He's also a positive contract and has
massive production.

Raps took floor over ceiling, and it is a HIGH floor.  So overall I grade it as a very good move.  Personally, I'm riding or dying with Zion and going for
the ceiling, but if you don't trust Big Z's knees, this is the easiest trade you'll ever make.  Definitely a trade that will be talked about for years to come.

With their dynasty centerpiece in place, Toronto sat out an expensive FA and stood pat.

AD, DeRozan, and Lowry lead an incredibly strong contender featuring John Wall, Jonas Valanciunas, Christian Wood, Thomas Bryant, Will Barton, and
Bojan Bogdanovic.

Questionmarks include the sawdust where Kemba Walker's knee cartilage used to be, Lowry being 35 years old in a season with nearly twenty back-to-back
games, and the privilege of paying $5m a year for Enes Kanter's corpse.

Nevertheless, nabbing Christian Wood's value contract under the league's nose and grabbing a 55 FPPG player like Anthony Davis has propelled Toronto
to the top of the pack.

Toronto has been an excellent, friendly GM, and welcome addition to the league since joining, and it's great to see the franchise thriving under her.



#3 Portland TrailBlazers (Contender)

Last Season: #10

An OG owner here since the start, Portland is an uber-talented GM who was the first Moneyball tanker, to the point where we all personally associated the
tank emoji with his franchise.



The blueprint that Chicago, Washington, and others are now deploying in Guru was pioneered by Porty, who has now gone from 0-16 to legit contender
thanks to great draft selections and savvy trades.

After a false start last year, the Blazers followed the Raptors example and sat out Summer FA.  A controversial trade veto (the first in the last five years)
prevented Portland from acquiring AD in a monumental trade, but his projection didn't change too much, and the Blazers remain one of the favorites this
season.

Everyone (except OKC) who sat out FA had their projections improve given the massive price inflation due to too many teams having an excess of cap, so
Portland shoots up from my pre-FA Power Rankings, as the expected production-per-dollar costs were exorbitant.

Injuries and bad luck stopped last year's breakout, but Trae Young's meteoric ascension, MPJ's breakout (the good kind, not the Lindsay Lohan kind), Mitchell
Robinson getting a new coach (and agent, lul), Lauri getting a new coach, Lonzo's move to the Pelicans, Bagley getting healthy, Fultz settling into a solid role in
Orlando and Blake's recovery should prove a dangerous combination that spits out oodles of FPPG.

Then factor in all those players are under 23 years old and should all make jumps on top of that, and combine it with LMA and Vuce's veteran output,
and you've got a fuckin' squad.

Improved health, upward regression, rookie progress, and multiple coaching changes should give the Blazers a serious shot at the title (assuming Mitchell
Robinson can stop fouling out in 22 minutes a night.)




#4 Oklahoma City Thunder (Contender)

Last Season: #6

OKC's off-season FA was a Chernobyl-level disaster, acquiring nobody and being left with nearly $25,000,000 in open cap, moving him from 1st in my
Pre-FA Power Rankings down to 4th.

Do you trust an inactive, laconic GM who rarely trades to transform his aging, rotting supporting cast and efficiently use his $25m in cap? I don't.

The Thunder are now in Lakers Trade Miracle territory, similar to the Pelicans in 2018-2019.  Short of Los Angeles throwing away their whole team again
to try to gift OKC the title, his destiny is more Larry David than Larry O'Brien.

Still, Oklahoma's core is incredibly scary, and he is an elite GM who has drafted and traded well, and makes few mistakes.

Fox, Sabonis, and Siakam putting up 40+ FPPG on rookie scale, along with Kevin Durant returning to action is undoubtedly a menace. Then add Middleton
and Wiggins in their prime, and you've got a recipe for a championship.

That's maybe the best Top 6 grouping in Guru.  After that, it completely falls off, with an old folks home filled with uninspiring contracts and bad knees.  Will
the Thunder find a way to hone the bottom half of his roster into a blade that can cut through the league's competition and claim the title?  Only time will tell.

...

Ok, some time has passed, and the answer is no.




#5 Denver Nuggets (Cousins are tender)

Last Season: #2

All Evan Fournier. All the time.

Who has two thumbs and burned one of their three precious re-signs on Evan Fournier?  This guy.

Who once bragged, TWO GAMES INTO THE SEASON, about Evan fuckin' Fournier's 36 FPPG average? This guy.

Who scooped up Evan Fournier once more in Summer FA? This guy.

Who owns a Signature Line® Evan Fournier Butthole Fleshlight™? This guy.

Why do I know that they have a signature line? MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS!



The evil Nuggets re-tooled this off-season, mostly eschewing FA and instead making a series of massive trades, bringing in Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, and 
Lebron James (expiring).

He also acquired Fred VanVleet (expiring), Wendell Carter Jr.'s rookie scale deal, and Daniel Theis (expiring).

Noticing a theme here?  Nuggets has made some heavy, win-now moves.  Overall, I rate these moves fairly strongly, especially in the short-term.

Nuggets' penchant for bad re-signs continues though, as Evan Fournier's shadow looms long.  After bragging about re-signing Jarrett Allen, who he should have
let go into FA and simply re-signed for 11m a year instead of wasting a re-sign for 8.5m, rumors are swirling that he's desperately trying to dump him, probably
because his website told him to.

His Capela re-sign last year was also a disaster, and at 13.5m for 30 FPPG is an unmovable albatross eating away at the Nuggets cap and holding him back.

Nevertheless, the good outweighs the bad, and Nuggets starting five of LeBron, Kawhi, Tatum, FVV, and WCJ is formidable.  He's completely transformed his 
roster over the last two years and is now a respected GM and legitimate contender for the foreseeable future, much to this handsome writer's chagrin.

Look for Denver to have a solid shot at claiming his first championship this season.







#6 Minnesota Timberwolves (Contender)

Last Season: #3

The Wolves has been one of the best franchises in Guru history, with its current GM having never missed the playoffs, finishing 5th, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd since
joining the league -- a spectacular feat.

Dynasty superstar Karl-Anthony Towns is the face of the franchise, although Minny's favorite player is likely FPPG powerhouse Damian Lillard, who just scorched
the league last season.

The Wolves made the sharpest (in a chess sense, meaning a sharp position that hangs on a knife's edge and can easily lead to a win for either side) trade of the
off-season, sending out Lebron/FVV/WCJ for Butler/White/Jrue -- a move that will likely determine the direction of both franchises for years to come.

He also swapped Jaren Jackson Jr. for Donovan Mitchell, another huge move that saw the Pelicans swap one of his 4 core pieces (the other being a Jokic for Bam trade.)

KAT, Lillard, Butler, Mitchell, and Holiday should provide enough artillery for the Wolves to punch through most of the league.

His supporting cast is a bit thin, so he'll have some work to do throughout the course of the season.  I have this nagging suspicion that the low-key Summer FA 
aquisitions of Malik Beasley (Minny) and Gary Trent Jr. (Porty) for way too cheap may come back to bite us all in our collective asses, but we'll see.  I'm already
mildly annoyed at my self for not bidding on the former.

Either way, it looks like the slew of solid moves by the Wolves means he's primed for another deep playoff run, and his streak of Top 5 finishes to continue.



#7 Boston Celtics (Contender)

Last Season: #11

And here, I make my first bold prediction of the season: 

The worst franchise in Guru history... is going to make the playoffs!

Yes, the only franchise, out of 16, that has never made the playoffs, is heading there this season, after six long years.

The Boston Celtics have finished #10, #12, #12, #13, #12 over the first five seasons of their existence, one of the most embarrassing records in fantasy basketball,
not just Guru.  But now, at long last, the Bostonian nightmare is finally over.  The Celtics have arrived, and are now firmly in the Contender tier.  Congrats!

The shrewd draft selections of Tyler Herro and Coby White have propelled Boston's core of Kyrie Irving, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle, and a lucky roll of the dice has
landed Gordon Hayward onto a team where he'll get a bigger role.  Trading for Buddy Hield and acquiring Malcolm Brogdon in FA were also good moves, and have put
the Celtics in position to compete for a title.

Boston has done a really nice job of turning things around, and proves you can create a contender without bottoming out (cough, Portland), although it seems like half
the new GMs didn't get the memo and are hellbent on Sam Hinkieing the shit out of their franchises.

Kudos!



#8 New Orleans Pelicans (Contender)

Last Season: #5

The Pelicans franchise has never missed the playoffs, and in his second year running the team I expect New Pels to keep the trend going, as he looks to surpass the
legendary Choking Pels and do what he couldn't -- seal the deal.

New New Orleans has certainly put his stamp on the roster, sending Jokic out for Bam, and swapping Donovan Mitchell for JJJ.

He has aggressively targeted aging veterans on cheap deals in FA, and I like his acquisition of Chris Paul for 6.5m, which I think was very suave.  Shipping Sekou for
Marcus Smart's great contract was another coup, and I expect more smart deals to follow.

And of course, he has the G.O.A.T., T.J. Warren, who was featured on Wheel of Fortune last night.



There's still some work to be done on the outer edges of the roster, but I expect New Orleans to be up to the task and make a run at the title and remain a
contender for a long time -- if only to spite the Nuggets.


Part II is now available here!