Basketball Guru 2018-2019 Preview
Sept 22, 2018 19:53:37 GMT -6
Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks like this
Post by Phoenix Suns on Sept 22, 2018 19:53:37 GMT -6
Basketball Guru 2018-2019 Preview
Welcome to the Guru 2018-2019 Preview! I'll be going through all sixteen teams' rosters, evaluating their offseason moves and predicting their season-long outlook.
Numbers in parenthesis are player's ballpark FPPG estimates.
TIER 1 (Contenders)
These six teams are locks to make the playoffs, and will likely all be in serious contention for the Championship.
1. New York Knicks
The defending champions return their entire team for a title defense, and should once again be the favorites. With little financial flexibility and zero roster moves (thus far) this off-season, it will be up to the rest of the field to improve in order to de-throne the master of late Summer FA bids.
The Knicks are the gold standard in win-now championship roster construction. The formula is simple: surround four super-producers in Westbrook (52), Simmons (44), Curry (42) and Jordan (34) with an army of cheap, value contracts that produce 20-24 FPPG.
The only blemish on their cap sheet is Carmelo Anthony (25), one of the five worst contracts in the league, and guaranteed another 28m over the next two years. DiVincenzo also looks like a garbage 1st Round Pick.
Beyond that, however, there is little to criticize as rings speak louder than words and the Knicks core remains in their prime. If that wasn't bad enough, they won the Finals with Curry on their IR. Gulp.
2. Phoenix Suns
After a season ravaged by injuries and a disappointing first-round exit last season, the Phoenix Suns should take the optimistic route and hope to rebound as their new franchise mascot Devin Booker looks to... anddddddddd he's out for six weeks with hand surgery.
The Suns core of Giannis (52), Kawhi (40), Booker (36), D'Lo (34), Aldridge (34), RHJ (30), Mirotic (28), Warren (26), and THJ (26) is deep and productive, and should pack a serious punch come playoff time.
The team lost 17m in cap space this year, with Antetokounmpo going from 4m to 21m, but Phoenix has spent the better part of the last two seasons dumping over 40m in 2018-2019 salary in anticipation (the team originally projected to have 100m committed to 11 players this season), and goes into the season with close to 10m in open cap.
If Jonathan Isaac has the breakout season many pundits predict, it could push the Suns over the top. Phoenix largely stayed out of FA, maintaining significant cap flexibility for the season, giving them the potential to add another star via trade.
3. Dallas Mavericks
The only non-playoff team from last season to jump into the Contender list, Dallas bet big trading for Oladipo and Jrue Holiday (both courtesy of Wolves) and won, while Ingram and Drummond made big leaps, turning the Commish's team into an overnight sensation.
As if that wasn't enough, Mavs drafted Doncic, Anunoby, Adebayo, and signed Kuzma in FA. Doncic could prove the backbreaker for the rest of the league. Pray to the Seven that Aaron Gordon doesn't make a leap this season.
Drummond (44), Oladipo (39), Gordon (34), Holiday (34), Ingram (33), Doncic (32), Turner (31), Kuzma (28), and Jackson (26) form a very strong core, and should compete for a title.
With a stacked team of stars surrounded by the biggest haul of 1st round draft picks in the league and a bevy of solid, cheap contracts, Dallas is now the most valuable franchise in the league.
4. Toronto Raptors
Year 2 of Raptors turning the corner is underway, and much of it will rest on Porzingis's return from a severe ACL injury. If he returns to form before the playoffs, Toronto will have the firepower to claim the crown.
Wall (42), Derozan (37), Porzingis (37), Walker (36), Green (35), Murray (30), DSJ (29), IT (26), and Valanciunas (26) make for an intimidating core.
If Murray or DSJ make a big leap, or IT returns to his 35-40 FPPG glory days, Toronto could vault into favorite status.
A lot rides on The Zinger coming back in time, as the Raptors can only re-sign one of Draymond or Walker, losing 35 FPPG production next season.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
The reigning EOTY and Finals' runner-up made some drastic changes this off-season, downshifting and trading away production for lotto picks in the form of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Michael Porter Jr.. Jackson should immediately recoup some of that, but MPJ is definitely more of a future investment.
Trades for Brook Lopez and Evan Fournier should provide some decent numbers, while drafting Okobo way ahead of his ADP could pay dividends early as he's in the running for the starting PG spot on the Suns.
Towns (45), Lillard (42), Griffin (39), McCollum (34), JJJ (29), Evans (28), Lopez (27), and Fournier (26) put Minnesota in contention, and it could look even better should some combination of Elie Okobo, Zhaire Smith, JJJ or MPJ have a breakout.
Minny continues to be the poster child for "stay competitive, but build for the future", showing that you can have your cake and eat it, too.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Can a team with only one player producing over 33 FPPG win a championship?
That is the question Philly will attempt to answer this season. The 76ers are a tough team to assess, as they have almost 10m in cap space and could add another star down the road, but as it stands, they are an incredibly deep team, albeit with only one superstar producer.
Harden (52) will lead a group that includes Vucevic (33), Adams (31), Kanter (30), Collins (29), Horford (29), Saric (27), and Covington (25).
Vucevic has historically been a 35 FPPG guy, but Orlando looks to be moving on from him and focusing on developing Mo Bamba, putting him in an awkward situation, and possibly requiring a trade for him to maintain his previous value.
John Collins, on the other hand, could be a breakout candidate in my view. I really like his game. Mitchell, Markkanen, and Tatum already broke out last year, and I feel like Collins, Isaac, DSJ, and Monk are good bets to take big leaps this year.
The 76ers big off-season acquisitions were Covington in FA and Horford via trade. Both good moves that added solid producers. Smart cap management gives Philly flexibility to make moves during the season and jump into the top three.
TIER 2 (Playoff Teams)
These teams will be competing for the final two playoff spots. They're all capable of making a run at the title should things break right for them, and are 1-2 trades (or other team's injuries) away from being serious contenders.
7. Chicago Bulls
Chicago... is good now?
The Yin to Portland's Yang as a Bottom 3 team tanking for picks has come to an end, as the Bulls made big moves in trading for Butler, Capela, CP3, and Howard.
Meanwhile, some excellent picks in the form of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are paying dividends, turning the Bulls into a playoff contender.
Butler (39), Paul (37), Capela (35), Howard (33), Tatum (30), Brown (27), and several players at 23-24 FPPG lay the foundation for future success at the Madhouse.
If Ntilikina, Hield, Allen, Nance or Chriss make a leap, they could be dangerous.
And that's before you factor in that Chicago has the 2nd most cap space in the league, with only 75m on the books.
The Bulls' fortunes are looking up.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC continues to put forward solid playoff teams year after year, and should continue to compete at a high level for the foreseeable future.
Durant (45), Gasol (35), Middleton (33), Wiggins (28), Sabonis (26), Fox (24), Bazemore (24), and Ibaka (24) form their core.
The Bad: They lost a 32 FPPG producer for nothing in Schroder expiring and getting traded. Letting him go was the right move as he'll be a low 20s guy in OKC, but it still hurts. Wiggins hasn't improved since his rookie season, and in fact has regressed. Maybe Butler getting traded and calling him out will light a fire under him? The Ibaka signing (4 years, 32m) has not worked out.
The Good: Knox looked great in Summer League. Yeah, it's SL, but still. Looking more and more like a fantastic pick. Fox is still incredibly young and could show growth in Year 2. Sabonis is only 22 and could make a leap. Middleton is still only 27.
The Thunder also have a ton of cap space (around 13m) to work with, giving them incredible financial tools to go out and make a big move. They have a nice mix of win-now guys and promising young players, but it will require some strong moves throughout the season to take their roster to the next level. Most teams don't have the assets to make the leap, but the Thunder do. The question is: Will they?
9. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans take the biggest year-to-year fall, as half their team's contracts expired last year and they lacked the cap space to re-sign anyone, with Jokic going from 0.5m to 17m.
NOLA knew this, going for broke by trading for a 1-year rental of Lowry last season (good decision -- had to go for it), and now faces the awkward task of having to rebuild while holding four of the most valuable Dynasty Superstars in AD, Embiid, Jokic, and Beal.
You can't trade them, yet they produce so many fantasy points you're projected to finish 7th and make the playoffs, reducing the value of your own picks. Yuck!
Davis (52), Embiid (45), Jokic (45), and Beal (36) are surrounded by a roster of aging, garbage players.
Bogdan is a nice piece, but the IRL Kings are a terrible franchise who I don't trust to properly develop him, while the Pelicans only off-season move was overpaying Rodney Hood with a 4 year, 10m dollar contract. I saw Rodney Hood in the playoffs last year. No thanks.
I'm not sure simply "wait for AD to cost less in 2021" is a complete strategy, and New Orleans may have to trade one of their centerpieces to create cap space and replenish their depleted assets with movable pieces (similar to the Whiteside trade.)
This looks to be a rough season ahead for the most successful franchise in the history of Guru, as the perennial favorite spends his first year out of contention. But NOLA was the best for a reason, and I fully expect him to bounce back and return to his former mantle -- i.e., a championship level team that chokes at the last second.
10. Seattle SuperSonics
Seattle swung for the fences this offseason, trading away the #1 pick and Gordon for Lebron and the #5 pick, and if this is Seattle's final attempt at glory before tearing down their aging core and rebuilding, it could prove a successful one.
LBJ (52), Love (38), Lou Williams (30), Millsap (30), Conley (28), Batum (27), and Bamba (24) will look to stick it to the contenders and become this season's Dark Horse.
The case for Seattle is this: They added a 52 FPPG superstar and the best player in the NBA and didn't lose much in switching out Bamba for Ayton, while Love gains significant value in James leaving town, leaving him as the 1st option in Cleveland. Conley is healthy again, Lou Williams beasted last season, Batum is 29 and still productive, and 5m in cap space and a pick could maybe help add one more guy.
It's a compelling argument, and we'll see how they fare in October. If it doesn't work, the Sonics should re-evaluate come February and start looking to re-build around Mo Bamba, who looks incredibly promising.
TIER 3 (Could compete but won't)
The Lakers and Nuggets could push into Tier 2 if they wanted to (but shouldn't), and have the assets to credibly compete. Neither will, as they continue to develop youngsters and rebuild their teams for the future.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers drafted promising rookies in Marvin Bagley and Collin Sexton, after successfully hitting on Donovan Mitchell last season, giving them perhaps the most enviable group of young players in the league.
Mitchell (34), Otto Porter (30), Dunn (30), Lavine (30), Payton (29), Bagley (25), Schroder (24), Sexton (24) and Oubre (23) will give the Lakers more point production than they'd like, but unlike the Pelicans, the Lakers don't own their 2019 pick, so their draft position is immaterial.
Their only big move this off-season was signing Schroder in FA. He has limited value on OKC, but if he gets traded ala Oladipo, the 25 year old could be putting up 32 FPPG for only 4.5m a year, making him a steal.
With a bevy of young talent and the most cap space in the league (23m in open cap as of this writing), Los Angeles is very well poised for the future.
12. Denver Nuggets
Denver is perhaps the MVP of this off-season, going absolutely ballistic, accounting for 90% of trades and FA signings.
Denver stole Wendell Carter Jr. in the draft, and nabbed SGA for good measure, pairing them with his most valuable young assets in Garry Harris and Dejounte Murray.
He then traded for Will Barton's uber-valuable contract while freeing cap space, and successfully lobbied the TC to re-sign Cousins for 17m a year, good for up to 20m in savings. The Rubio acquisition could also prove fruitful as he's been effective under Snyder.
Nuggets came out swinging in FA, taking the biggest name in the draft in Kyle Lowry, and then going after Derrick Favors' solid production, while hedging for the future in taking Melton.
Cousins (25-50?), Lowry (33), Dragic (29), Harris (28), Rubio (28), Barton (27), Favors (26), WCS (26), WCJ (25), SGA (23), Portis (23) aren't enough production to make the playoffs, but they're tradeable pieces or could develop further. Their points total doesn't matter since they don't own their own pick.
Overall, some very positive progress.
Given it's Nuggets, and I hate them, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that he doesn't have his amnesty and that 68m guaranteed to Cousins could definitely blow up in his face, and the last two years of that Lowry contract are basically Chandler Parsons' current unmovable 7.5m 7.5m albatross as they'll be his Age 35 and Age 36 seasons, and he already declined 6 FPPG year-to-year this season. I hope Boogie's achilles explodes and nobody trades for that Lowry contract (DON'T DO IT MILWAUKEE AND/OR SONICS!)
TIER 4 (Tankers)
Rebuilding teams racing towards the bottom. All these teams own their own 2019 1st Round Picks, and should be trying to do as badly as possible.
13. Vancouver Grizzlies
I've been critical of Vancouver (along with every person I've ever met), but they made some nice moves in the off-season, and definitely increased the value of their franchise by a factor of two.
The Grizzlies finally pulled the trigger on dealing LeBron, getting the #1 overall pick and Gordon Hayward in the process. Very nice!
I would have liked to see them take Doncic, but Ayton is nevertheless a great pick, and should be a stud. Hayward is 28 and a 30+ FPPG player, and a nice rebuilding piece or trade chip.
Not a fan of the Mikal Bridges pick, and I'm still not convinced a real human being with a frontal lobe that hasn't been scooped out by a cannibal would ever take on 16m of Brandon Knight's contract for regards, but it is what it is.
Hayward (32), Bledsoe (32), Harris (31), Ayton (30), Randle (30), Nurkic (30) and Dinwiddie (24) will give Vancouver a bit more production than one would like when tanking, but it's still near the bottom, and at least Bron is gone.
The lack of cap space hurts, but should clear up dramatically next season.
Ayton, Harris, Nurkic, Randle, Hayward, Bledsoe, Bridges, and Bell are some nice pieces, and should help as either foundational pieces or trade bait in returning the former Clippers franchise to glory.
14. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks started the process of rebuilding last season in acquiring Malik Monk and a 2020 1st, while drafting another promising rookie in Josh Jackson. Both look set to make leaps this season, and should be the foundation upon which the Bucks build.
They're in firm control of their destiny, as they own their own 2019 pick, and are projected to be in a three-way tie with Portland and Boston in terms of least production. Combine that with the further flattening of NBA Lottery odds this year, and the Bucks don't need to trade Paul George to help get the #1 pick -- they'll have the same odds regardless.
George (38), Teague (29), Collison (25), Gasol (25), Jackson (24), Monk (24), Brodgon (23) as their top producers show that they need to blow it up.
I really like the Miles Bridges pick in this year's draft, and taking fliers on Okogie and Noel was also smart. Len will get one last shot in Atlanta.
PG, Monk, Jackson, Brogdon, Bridges, Okogie, and a Top 5 pick in the 2019 draft form a very nice nucleus for future success, and some trades and FA pickups could boost those odds even further.
15. Boston Celtics
Boston is somewhat analogous to New Orleans: They have 4-5 foundational players, and not much else.
The Bad: Their foundational players are not as elite as Pelicans.
The Good: The reduced FPPG from that means they can keep their core and clinch the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, while New Orleans is probably fucked in terms of their lotto pick.
Boston, unlike a lot of teams near the bottom, actually has a really great path back to contention.
Irving (37), Gobert (36), Whiteside (36), Barnes (30), Thompson (30) and a bunch of scrubs means they're headed for lotto-ville, but also that they could turn it around incredibly fast.
They are the team best suited to follow the New York Knicks strategy.
1. Tank in 2019 and get a generational player at the top of the draft
2. Fill out your roster in the 2019 Summer FA with cheap, 22-24 FPPG players
3. Compete in 2020 when you don't own your pick with a core of Irving/Gobert/Whiteside/Barnes/2019 1st Round Pick
Klay Thompson will go from costing 20m this season to 8m, leaving Boston flush with cash for the 2020 season. Whiteside can hit 40 FPPG if he's traded and gets more minutes. With a great core of superstars, a top tier lotto pick, a cheaper Klay, and tons of cap space and some cheapo contracts gives the Celtics a great chance to pull off a miraculous return to contention.
16. Portland TrailBlazers
Guru's CTO (Chief Tanking Officer) once again finds himself at the bottom of the league -- exactly where he wants to be. When your spirit animal is Sam Hinkie, you make a point to own all your own picks and finish last.
The Trailblazers turned the corner towards contention last season, saw their own shadow, then immediately scurried back, shipping off Butler, Capela, and Howard to the Bulls.
Legitimate progress was made last season, however. The Blazers hit on Lonzo, then made an impressive trade with the Wolves for Markkanen, who would likely go Top 3 in a re-draft.
He also made a swing for Markelle Fultz, and that move is looking better by the day, yips be damned. His re-worked shot could be the real deal. Only time will tell.
Only one of his players projects over 30 FPPG this season in Ball (33), but don't let that deceive you. Portland is one of the most valuable franchises in the league long-term.
Lonzo Ball, Lauri Markkanen, Trae Young, Markelle Fultz, Taurean Prince, Jabari Parker, Caris LeVert, Mitchell Robinson, Harry Giles, Lonnie Walker... this team has more blue-chip prospects than anyone save maybe Los Angeles.
His only FA move this off-season was betting 16m on Cedi Osman, who could get a nice opportunity on the Cavs.
With a stable of promising young studs and another shot at a Top 3 lotto pick, Portland is primed for future success. Or, you know, just endlessly cycling prospects into more picks for
I N F I N I T E V A L U E
Welcome to the Guru 2018-2019 Preview! I'll be going through all sixteen teams' rosters, evaluating their offseason moves and predicting their season-long outlook.
Numbers in parenthesis are player's ballpark FPPG estimates.
TIER 1 (Contenders)
These six teams are locks to make the playoffs, and will likely all be in serious contention for the Championship.
1. New York Knicks
The defending champions return their entire team for a title defense, and should once again be the favorites. With little financial flexibility and zero roster moves (thus far) this off-season, it will be up to the rest of the field to improve in order to de-throne the master of late Summer FA bids.
The Knicks are the gold standard in win-now championship roster construction. The formula is simple: surround four super-producers in Westbrook (52), Simmons (44), Curry (42) and Jordan (34) with an army of cheap, value contracts that produce 20-24 FPPG.
The only blemish on their cap sheet is Carmelo Anthony (25), one of the five worst contracts in the league, and guaranteed another 28m over the next two years. DiVincenzo also looks like a garbage 1st Round Pick.
Beyond that, however, there is little to criticize as rings speak louder than words and the Knicks core remains in their prime. If that wasn't bad enough, they won the Finals with Curry on their IR. Gulp.
2. Phoenix Suns
After a season ravaged by injuries and a disappointing first-round exit last season, the Phoenix Suns should take the optimistic route and hope to rebound as their new franchise mascot Devin Booker looks to... anddddddddd he's out for six weeks with hand surgery.
The Suns core of Giannis (52), Kawhi (40), Booker (36), D'Lo (34), Aldridge (34), RHJ (30), Mirotic (28), Warren (26), and THJ (26) is deep and productive, and should pack a serious punch come playoff time.
The team lost 17m in cap space this year, with Antetokounmpo going from 4m to 21m, but Phoenix has spent the better part of the last two seasons dumping over 40m in 2018-2019 salary in anticipation (the team originally projected to have 100m committed to 11 players this season), and goes into the season with close to 10m in open cap.
If Jonathan Isaac has the breakout season many pundits predict, it could push the Suns over the top. Phoenix largely stayed out of FA, maintaining significant cap flexibility for the season, giving them the potential to add another star via trade.
3. Dallas Mavericks
The only non-playoff team from last season to jump into the Contender list, Dallas bet big trading for Oladipo and Jrue Holiday (both courtesy of Wolves) and won, while Ingram and Drummond made big leaps, turning the Commish's team into an overnight sensation.
As if that wasn't enough, Mavs drafted Doncic, Anunoby, Adebayo, and signed Kuzma in FA. Doncic could prove the backbreaker for the rest of the league. Pray to the Seven that Aaron Gordon doesn't make a leap this season.
Drummond (44), Oladipo (39), Gordon (34), Holiday (34), Ingram (33), Doncic (32), Turner (31), Kuzma (28), and Jackson (26) form a very strong core, and should compete for a title.
With a stacked team of stars surrounded by the biggest haul of 1st round draft picks in the league and a bevy of solid, cheap contracts, Dallas is now the most valuable franchise in the league.
4. Toronto Raptors
Year 2 of Raptors turning the corner is underway, and much of it will rest on Porzingis's return from a severe ACL injury. If he returns to form before the playoffs, Toronto will have the firepower to claim the crown.
Wall (42), Derozan (37), Porzingis (37), Walker (36), Green (35), Murray (30), DSJ (29), IT (26), and Valanciunas (26) make for an intimidating core.
If Murray or DSJ make a big leap, or IT returns to his 35-40 FPPG glory days, Toronto could vault into favorite status.
A lot rides on The Zinger coming back in time, as the Raptors can only re-sign one of Draymond or Walker, losing 35 FPPG production next season.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
The reigning EOTY and Finals' runner-up made some drastic changes this off-season, downshifting and trading away production for lotto picks in the form of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Michael Porter Jr.. Jackson should immediately recoup some of that, but MPJ is definitely more of a future investment.
Trades for Brook Lopez and Evan Fournier should provide some decent numbers, while drafting Okobo way ahead of his ADP could pay dividends early as he's in the running for the starting PG spot on the Suns.
Towns (45), Lillard (42), Griffin (39), McCollum (34), JJJ (29), Evans (28), Lopez (27), and Fournier (26) put Minnesota in contention, and it could look even better should some combination of Elie Okobo, Zhaire Smith, JJJ or MPJ have a breakout.
Minny continues to be the poster child for "stay competitive, but build for the future", showing that you can have your cake and eat it, too.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Can a team with only one player producing over 33 FPPG win a championship?
That is the question Philly will attempt to answer this season. The 76ers are a tough team to assess, as they have almost 10m in cap space and could add another star down the road, but as it stands, they are an incredibly deep team, albeit with only one superstar producer.
Harden (52) will lead a group that includes Vucevic (33), Adams (31), Kanter (30), Collins (29), Horford (29), Saric (27), and Covington (25).
Vucevic has historically been a 35 FPPG guy, but Orlando looks to be moving on from him and focusing on developing Mo Bamba, putting him in an awkward situation, and possibly requiring a trade for him to maintain his previous value.
John Collins, on the other hand, could be a breakout candidate in my view. I really like his game. Mitchell, Markkanen, and Tatum already broke out last year, and I feel like Collins, Isaac, DSJ, and Monk are good bets to take big leaps this year.
The 76ers big off-season acquisitions were Covington in FA and Horford via trade. Both good moves that added solid producers. Smart cap management gives Philly flexibility to make moves during the season and jump into the top three.
TIER 2 (Playoff Teams)
These teams will be competing for the final two playoff spots. They're all capable of making a run at the title should things break right for them, and are 1-2 trades (or other team's injuries) away from being serious contenders.
7. Chicago Bulls
Chicago... is good now?
The Yin to Portland's Yang as a Bottom 3 team tanking for picks has come to an end, as the Bulls made big moves in trading for Butler, Capela, CP3, and Howard.
Meanwhile, some excellent picks in the form of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are paying dividends, turning the Bulls into a playoff contender.
Butler (39), Paul (37), Capela (35), Howard (33), Tatum (30), Brown (27), and several players at 23-24 FPPG lay the foundation for future success at the Madhouse.
If Ntilikina, Hield, Allen, Nance or Chriss make a leap, they could be dangerous.
And that's before you factor in that Chicago has the 2nd most cap space in the league, with only 75m on the books.
The Bulls' fortunes are looking up.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC continues to put forward solid playoff teams year after year, and should continue to compete at a high level for the foreseeable future.
Durant (45), Gasol (35), Middleton (33), Wiggins (28), Sabonis (26), Fox (24), Bazemore (24), and Ibaka (24) form their core.
The Bad: They lost a 32 FPPG producer for nothing in Schroder expiring and getting traded. Letting him go was the right move as he'll be a low 20s guy in OKC, but it still hurts. Wiggins hasn't improved since his rookie season, and in fact has regressed. Maybe Butler getting traded and calling him out will light a fire under him? The Ibaka signing (4 years, 32m) has not worked out.
The Good: Knox looked great in Summer League. Yeah, it's SL, but still. Looking more and more like a fantastic pick. Fox is still incredibly young and could show growth in Year 2. Sabonis is only 22 and could make a leap. Middleton is still only 27.
The Thunder also have a ton of cap space (around 13m) to work with, giving them incredible financial tools to go out and make a big move. They have a nice mix of win-now guys and promising young players, but it will require some strong moves throughout the season to take their roster to the next level. Most teams don't have the assets to make the leap, but the Thunder do. The question is: Will they?
9. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans take the biggest year-to-year fall, as half their team's contracts expired last year and they lacked the cap space to re-sign anyone, with Jokic going from 0.5m to 17m.
NOLA knew this, going for broke by trading for a 1-year rental of Lowry last season (good decision -- had to go for it), and now faces the awkward task of having to rebuild while holding four of the most valuable Dynasty Superstars in AD, Embiid, Jokic, and Beal.
You can't trade them, yet they produce so many fantasy points you're projected to finish 7th and make the playoffs, reducing the value of your own picks. Yuck!
Davis (52), Embiid (45), Jokic (45), and Beal (36) are surrounded by a roster of aging, garbage players.
Bogdan is a nice piece, but the IRL Kings are a terrible franchise who I don't trust to properly develop him, while the Pelicans only off-season move was overpaying Rodney Hood with a 4 year, 10m dollar contract. I saw Rodney Hood in the playoffs last year. No thanks.
I'm not sure simply "wait for AD to cost less in 2021" is a complete strategy, and New Orleans may have to trade one of their centerpieces to create cap space and replenish their depleted assets with movable pieces (similar to the Whiteside trade.)
This looks to be a rough season ahead for the most successful franchise in the history of Guru, as the perennial favorite spends his first year out of contention. But NOLA was the best for a reason, and I fully expect him to bounce back and return to his former mantle -- i.e., a championship level team that chokes at the last second.
10. Seattle SuperSonics
Seattle swung for the fences this offseason, trading away the #1 pick and Gordon for Lebron and the #5 pick, and if this is Seattle's final attempt at glory before tearing down their aging core and rebuilding, it could prove a successful one.
LBJ (52), Love (38), Lou Williams (30), Millsap (30), Conley (28), Batum (27), and Bamba (24) will look to stick it to the contenders and become this season's Dark Horse.
The case for Seattle is this: They added a 52 FPPG superstar and the best player in the NBA and didn't lose much in switching out Bamba for Ayton, while Love gains significant value in James leaving town, leaving him as the 1st option in Cleveland. Conley is healthy again, Lou Williams beasted last season, Batum is 29 and still productive, and 5m in cap space and a pick could maybe help add one more guy.
It's a compelling argument, and we'll see how they fare in October. If it doesn't work, the Sonics should re-evaluate come February and start looking to re-build around Mo Bamba, who looks incredibly promising.
TIER 3 (Could compete but won't)
The Lakers and Nuggets could push into Tier 2 if they wanted to (but shouldn't), and have the assets to credibly compete. Neither will, as they continue to develop youngsters and rebuild their teams for the future.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers drafted promising rookies in Marvin Bagley and Collin Sexton, after successfully hitting on Donovan Mitchell last season, giving them perhaps the most enviable group of young players in the league.
Mitchell (34), Otto Porter (30), Dunn (30), Lavine (30), Payton (29), Bagley (25), Schroder (24), Sexton (24) and Oubre (23) will give the Lakers more point production than they'd like, but unlike the Pelicans, the Lakers don't own their 2019 pick, so their draft position is immaterial.
Their only big move this off-season was signing Schroder in FA. He has limited value on OKC, but if he gets traded ala Oladipo, the 25 year old could be putting up 32 FPPG for only 4.5m a year, making him a steal.
With a bevy of young talent and the most cap space in the league (23m in open cap as of this writing), Los Angeles is very well poised for the future.
12. Denver Nuggets
Denver is perhaps the MVP of this off-season, going absolutely ballistic, accounting for 90% of trades and FA signings.
Denver stole Wendell Carter Jr. in the draft, and nabbed SGA for good measure, pairing them with his most valuable young assets in Garry Harris and Dejounte Murray.
He then traded for Will Barton's uber-valuable contract while freeing cap space, and successfully lobbied the TC to re-sign Cousins for 17m a year, good for up to 20m in savings. The Rubio acquisition could also prove fruitful as he's been effective under Snyder.
Nuggets came out swinging in FA, taking the biggest name in the draft in Kyle Lowry, and then going after Derrick Favors' solid production, while hedging for the future in taking Melton.
Cousins (25-50?), Lowry (33), Dragic (29), Harris (28), Rubio (28), Barton (27), Favors (26), WCS (26), WCJ (25), SGA (23), Portis (23) aren't enough production to make the playoffs, but they're tradeable pieces or could develop further. Their points total doesn't matter since they don't own their own pick.
Overall, some very positive progress.
Given it's Nuggets, and I hate them, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that he doesn't have his amnesty and that 68m guaranteed to Cousins could definitely blow up in his face, and the last two years of that Lowry contract are basically Chandler Parsons' current unmovable 7.5m 7.5m albatross as they'll be his Age 35 and Age 36 seasons, and he already declined 6 FPPG year-to-year this season. I hope Boogie's achilles explodes and nobody trades for that Lowry contract (DON'T DO IT MILWAUKEE AND/OR SONICS!)
TIER 4 (Tankers)
Rebuilding teams racing towards the bottom. All these teams own their own 2019 1st Round Picks, and should be trying to do as badly as possible.
13. Vancouver Grizzlies
I've been critical of Vancouver (along with every person I've ever met), but they made some nice moves in the off-season, and definitely increased the value of their franchise by a factor of two.
The Grizzlies finally pulled the trigger on dealing LeBron, getting the #1 overall pick and Gordon Hayward in the process. Very nice!
I would have liked to see them take Doncic, but Ayton is nevertheless a great pick, and should be a stud. Hayward is 28 and a 30+ FPPG player, and a nice rebuilding piece or trade chip.
Not a fan of the Mikal Bridges pick, and I'm still not convinced a real human being with a frontal lobe that hasn't been scooped out by a cannibal would ever take on 16m of Brandon Knight's contract for regards, but it is what it is.
Hayward (32), Bledsoe (32), Harris (31), Ayton (30), Randle (30), Nurkic (30) and Dinwiddie (24) will give Vancouver a bit more production than one would like when tanking, but it's still near the bottom, and at least Bron is gone.
The lack of cap space hurts, but should clear up dramatically next season.
Ayton, Harris, Nurkic, Randle, Hayward, Bledsoe, Bridges, and Bell are some nice pieces, and should help as either foundational pieces or trade bait in returning the former Clippers franchise to glory.
14. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks started the process of rebuilding last season in acquiring Malik Monk and a 2020 1st, while drafting another promising rookie in Josh Jackson. Both look set to make leaps this season, and should be the foundation upon which the Bucks build.
They're in firm control of their destiny, as they own their own 2019 pick, and are projected to be in a three-way tie with Portland and Boston in terms of least production. Combine that with the further flattening of NBA Lottery odds this year, and the Bucks don't need to trade Paul George to help get the #1 pick -- they'll have the same odds regardless.
George (38), Teague (29), Collison (25), Gasol (25), Jackson (24), Monk (24), Brodgon (23) as their top producers show that they need to blow it up.
I really like the Miles Bridges pick in this year's draft, and taking fliers on Okogie and Noel was also smart. Len will get one last shot in Atlanta.
PG, Monk, Jackson, Brogdon, Bridges, Okogie, and a Top 5 pick in the 2019 draft form a very nice nucleus for future success, and some trades and FA pickups could boost those odds even further.
15. Boston Celtics
Boston is somewhat analogous to New Orleans: They have 4-5 foundational players, and not much else.
The Bad: Their foundational players are not as elite as Pelicans.
The Good: The reduced FPPG from that means they can keep their core and clinch the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, while New Orleans is probably fucked in terms of their lotto pick.
Boston, unlike a lot of teams near the bottom, actually has a really great path back to contention.
Irving (37), Gobert (36), Whiteside (36), Barnes (30), Thompson (30) and a bunch of scrubs means they're headed for lotto-ville, but also that they could turn it around incredibly fast.
They are the team best suited to follow the New York Knicks strategy.
1. Tank in 2019 and get a generational player at the top of the draft
2. Fill out your roster in the 2019 Summer FA with cheap, 22-24 FPPG players
3. Compete in 2020 when you don't own your pick with a core of Irving/Gobert/Whiteside/Barnes/2019 1st Round Pick
Klay Thompson will go from costing 20m this season to 8m, leaving Boston flush with cash for the 2020 season. Whiteside can hit 40 FPPG if he's traded and gets more minutes. With a great core of superstars, a top tier lotto pick, a cheaper Klay, and tons of cap space and some cheapo contracts gives the Celtics a great chance to pull off a miraculous return to contention.
16. Portland TrailBlazers
Guru's CTO (Chief Tanking Officer) once again finds himself at the bottom of the league -- exactly where he wants to be. When your spirit animal is Sam Hinkie, you make a point to own all your own picks and finish last.
The Trailblazers turned the corner towards contention last season, saw their own shadow, then immediately scurried back, shipping off Butler, Capela, and Howard to the Bulls.
Legitimate progress was made last season, however. The Blazers hit on Lonzo, then made an impressive trade with the Wolves for Markkanen, who would likely go Top 3 in a re-draft.
He also made a swing for Markelle Fultz, and that move is looking better by the day, yips be damned. His re-worked shot could be the real deal. Only time will tell.
Only one of his players projects over 30 FPPG this season in Ball (33), but don't let that deceive you. Portland is one of the most valuable franchises in the league long-term.
Lonzo Ball, Lauri Markkanen, Trae Young, Markelle Fultz, Taurean Prince, Jabari Parker, Caris LeVert, Mitchell Robinson, Harry Giles, Lonnie Walker... this team has more blue-chip prospects than anyone save maybe Los Angeles.
His only FA move this off-season was betting 16m on Cedi Osman, who could get a nice opportunity on the Cavs.
With a stable of promising young studs and another shot at a Top 3 lotto pick, Portland is primed for future success. Or, you know, just endlessly cycling prospects into more picks for
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