Post by Seattle Supersonics on Apr 17, 2024 16:48:56 GMT -6
The Seattle SuperSonics would like to appeal to the Trade Committee about re-signing Zion Williamson to a different value than determined by the re-sign calculator. According to the calculator, Zion Williamson, as is, would be re-signed for $16.5m/year at his current value. While this number is slightly lower than his average FPPG across his career, it was also his “healthiest season”. Despite this being his healthiest season, Zion has become synonymous with the word “injured”. In fact, in his most recent game during the NBA Playoff Play-Ins, Zion suffered another hamstring injury. This encapsulated that risk of rostering Zion and signing him to a long-term deal, as he has good upside but is continuously prone to injury. In fact, including this year, Zion has only managed to play in 56% of his regular season games.
Therefore, I would like to ask the Trade Committee to approve an annual salary of $14m over five years, which will total out to a 5 year/$70 contract, with the last year being option. This contract will include the risks that come with signing a player who, historically, has only played slightly more than half of all regular season games in his career, while also acknowledging his potential upside.
A player’s production at this level who played 70 games in a season, to account for injury and/or potential rest time, would accumulate 2653 fantasy points across a season total.
Zion has averaged JUST 46 games played a season, with two seasons under 30 games played. This is substantially less than Kyrie’s averaged games per season at the time of his approval as Kyrie was averaging 58 games per year. At his average games played with his current production, he would only accumulate 1854 fantasy points across a season total, which would only be 26 FPPG during a 70 game season. In the two seasons where Zion had a higher FPPG average than this season, Zion only played a combined 90 games. This sample size across two seasons represents only 55% of possible games. This is not a big enough sample size to indicate that Zion can produce at this level going forward, while the injuries he has incurred since then also indicate that he may never return to that level again. Additionally, these 90 games account for less than HALF of his career total games (49% of his 184 game total). I would argue that this is not a strong enough sample size to indicate that he’s a career 43-44FPPG performer. As a result, while this season is a “discount” from his stronger seasons from a FPPG perspective, it is more of an indicator of the level he can produce going forward. A level he may not be able to maintain or reach again due to his injury history.
This discount is similar to a discount afforded to Kyrie Irving in the past (2.5m). Zion is both more injury prone than Kyrie, but also has produced a much smaller sample size across his career. For these reasons, and because he incurred another injury recently, which is affecting a different area than past major injuries (his hamstring) , I believe that an injury exception is warranted for consideration and approval.
And while I believe the above to be valid reasons to consider approving an injury exception, I would also want to plead my case to the trade committee that being injury prone not only significantly impacts a player's long-term value, but also their ability to produce in the short-term. Zion exemplifies this point and I will explain that below.
In my opinion, considering injury proneness when signing an NBA player to a contract is paramount for several reasons. Firstly, injuries can significantly impact a player's performance, leading to missing games and a regression in performance. For a player like Zion, this can affect his per-game value as his skillset goes hand in hand with his physical abilities. Injuries that impact his explosiveness and quickness would shut down his ability to be successful in the low post and the perimeter. In his first year, this was showcased as he was only able to play 24 games and produced a career low FPPG. He missed an ENTIRE season due to injury as well. After missing an entire season, he returned a 43.4 FPPG average on just 29 games played. Once again, I would argue that number should NOT be considered when making your decision as that number rivals the small sample size that was taken in consideration during Kyrie’s injury exception request. Moving on, after returning from an injury riddled year, his FPPG regressed. There is a pattern of him regressing statistically after incurring an injury. This year, he incurred another injury, which could impede his success in the coming years.
Injuries can have long-term implications beyond the immediate season. Chronic injuries or recurring issues can plague a player throughout their career, potentially shortening their playing time and diminishing their value. When re-signing a player long term, their long-term value should be part of the process when it comes to evaluating worth. No player has a murkier future than Zion because there is not a strong history of players who have struggled to remain on the court as badly as Zion ever leading a relatively healthy career in the long-term. His injury proneness becomes particularly concerning in the context of a long-term contract, where the team is committed to paying the player for several years, regardless of their availability.
By factoring in injury proneness during the re-sign process, teams can mitigate risks, protect their investments, and position themselves for sustained success, which is the overall goal of playing fantasy basketball in a dynasty setting.
To build off of my last point and expand on why Zion’s most recent injury coupled with his injury history are big reasons why an injury exception should be considered, I want to highlight how difficult hamstring injuries are to recover from and how often re-injury occurs. According to a study conducted from 2016-2021, Efekthari et al. found that Hamstring injuries are common in the NBA, and lead to a small but important decline in player performance. There is a high rate of reinjury of the hamstring and other areas of the body. For a player with Zion’s injury history, this is extremely concerning. Subsequent injuries in the same area occurred in the same or following season in 81% of the players in the study. This would significantly impact his ability to perform at a high level.
Thank you to the trade committee for considering this request. I believe that I’ve highlighted how his injury history, his propensity for getting hurt, how injuries impact his future outlook, and how the small sample size of game he has been able to play in all factor into why this request should be considered and approved.
Therefore, I would like to ask the Trade Committee to approve an annual salary of $14m over five years, which will total out to a 5 year/$70 contract, with the last year being option. This contract will include the risks that come with signing a player who, historically, has only played slightly more than half of all regular season games in his career, while also acknowledging his potential upside.
A player’s production at this level who played 70 games in a season, to account for injury and/or potential rest time, would accumulate 2653 fantasy points across a season total.
Zion has averaged JUST 46 games played a season, with two seasons under 30 games played. This is substantially less than Kyrie’s averaged games per season at the time of his approval as Kyrie was averaging 58 games per year. At his average games played with his current production, he would only accumulate 1854 fantasy points across a season total, which would only be 26 FPPG during a 70 game season. In the two seasons where Zion had a higher FPPG average than this season, Zion only played a combined 90 games. This sample size across two seasons represents only 55% of possible games. This is not a big enough sample size to indicate that Zion can produce at this level going forward, while the injuries he has incurred since then also indicate that he may never return to that level again. Additionally, these 90 games account for less than HALF of his career total games (49% of his 184 game total). I would argue that this is not a strong enough sample size to indicate that he’s a career 43-44FPPG performer. As a result, while this season is a “discount” from his stronger seasons from a FPPG perspective, it is more of an indicator of the level he can produce going forward. A level he may not be able to maintain or reach again due to his injury history.
This discount is similar to a discount afforded to Kyrie Irving in the past (2.5m). Zion is both more injury prone than Kyrie, but also has produced a much smaller sample size across his career. For these reasons, and because he incurred another injury recently, which is affecting a different area than past major injuries (his hamstring) , I believe that an injury exception is warranted for consideration and approval.
And while I believe the above to be valid reasons to consider approving an injury exception, I would also want to plead my case to the trade committee that being injury prone not only significantly impacts a player's long-term value, but also their ability to produce in the short-term. Zion exemplifies this point and I will explain that below.
In my opinion, considering injury proneness when signing an NBA player to a contract is paramount for several reasons. Firstly, injuries can significantly impact a player's performance, leading to missing games and a regression in performance. For a player like Zion, this can affect his per-game value as his skillset goes hand in hand with his physical abilities. Injuries that impact his explosiveness and quickness would shut down his ability to be successful in the low post and the perimeter. In his first year, this was showcased as he was only able to play 24 games and produced a career low FPPG. He missed an ENTIRE season due to injury as well. After missing an entire season, he returned a 43.4 FPPG average on just 29 games played. Once again, I would argue that number should NOT be considered when making your decision as that number rivals the small sample size that was taken in consideration during Kyrie’s injury exception request. Moving on, after returning from an injury riddled year, his FPPG regressed. There is a pattern of him regressing statistically after incurring an injury. This year, he incurred another injury, which could impede his success in the coming years.
Injuries can have long-term implications beyond the immediate season. Chronic injuries or recurring issues can plague a player throughout their career, potentially shortening their playing time and diminishing their value. When re-signing a player long term, their long-term value should be part of the process when it comes to evaluating worth. No player has a murkier future than Zion because there is not a strong history of players who have struggled to remain on the court as badly as Zion ever leading a relatively healthy career in the long-term. His injury proneness becomes particularly concerning in the context of a long-term contract, where the team is committed to paying the player for several years, regardless of their availability.
By factoring in injury proneness during the re-sign process, teams can mitigate risks, protect their investments, and position themselves for sustained success, which is the overall goal of playing fantasy basketball in a dynasty setting.
To build off of my last point and expand on why Zion’s most recent injury coupled with his injury history are big reasons why an injury exception should be considered, I want to highlight how difficult hamstring injuries are to recover from and how often re-injury occurs. According to a study conducted from 2016-2021, Efekthari et al. found that Hamstring injuries are common in the NBA, and lead to a small but important decline in player performance. There is a high rate of reinjury of the hamstring and other areas of the body. For a player with Zion’s injury history, this is extremely concerning. Subsequent injuries in the same area occurred in the same or following season in 81% of the players in the study. This would significantly impact his ability to perform at a high level.
Thank you to the trade committee for considering this request. I believe that I’ve highlighted how his injury history, his propensity for getting hurt, how injuries impact his future outlook, and how the small sample size of game he has been able to play in all factor into why this request should be considered and approved.