2020 Guru Draft Review
Nov 26, 2020 16:09:15 GMT -6
Portland TrailBlazers, Boston Celtics, and 2 more like this
Post by Sacramento Kings on Nov 26, 2020 16:09:15 GMT -6
Greetings Guru GMs and welcome to the 2020 Draft Review! This class of prospects was unusually lacking in star potential, but just like every class, next year’s rookies still have plenty of potential. With the NBA draft just last week and the season expected to commence in less than a month, rookies will be forced to begin the year without Summer League and the additional months to prepare themselves. Nevertheless, in many years’ time, we are sure to look back on this class and marvel at the seemingly unpredictable busts and breakout stars that make every draft class exciting. So, without further ado, let us begin to review the 32 selections made by 14 Guru GMs.
To be clear, each pick will be graded using the following criteria:
1. Was this the obvious, or consensus pick?
a. If so, was it a good pick, and how good?
b. If not, was it a good pick, and how good?
2. Is this player likely to outperform their pick in terms of fantasy performance over their career?
To Note:
1. No weighting will be given to trades made by GMs preceding their pick, nor how the players’ developmental timeline matches up with that of their fantasy team.
2. These grades largely reflect my own opinions and should not be taken too seriously.
Pick #1: LaMelo Ball – Bucks
Grade: F
Many draft analysts saw this year’s class to consist of a “top three” of Edwards, Wiseman, and Ball. While I believe Edwards and Wiseman to be among top prospects in this class, to consider Ball in the same tier as those two is to succumb to a variety of psychological biases. LaMelo Ball, high school phenom, is the best passer in this class with an advanced handle…and that’s where the positives end. His shot is clearly broken, and his shot selection of deep threes early in the shot clock and 16 foot floaters do nothing to assuage concerns of the more astute draft analysts. Moreover, his finishing package is made up of mostly “jelly” finishes (think Kyrie Irving), but his lack of both vertical burst and willingness to take and ability to finish through contact renders his finishing highly inadequate. Defensively he is difficult to evaluate because he does not seem to care whatsoever; he seldom gets into a good defensive stance, is unable to evade screens, too lazy for rotations, and allergic to the key basketball skill that is effort. Why, then, is he considered an elite prospect? Quite simply, his last name is Ball, and good handles and slick passing are enjoyable to watch. At Charlotte, he should get ample playing time his rookie season, where LaMelo fans will have to hope that he develops a workable jumper, begins to care on defense, and realizes that he is no longer playing high school basketball.
Pick #2: Anthony Edwards – Mavs
Grade: B
I can confidently say that Anthony Edwards will end up somewhere between Dion Waiters and Dwayne Wade. He is easily the most talented player in the class; his footwork, patience, and ability in isolation situations is unparalleled, and his athleticism and size give hope that once he finds the will to try defensively he will be a truly impactful two-way player.
Pick #3: Killian Hayes – Sixers
Grade: D+
In 2020, international prospects are still rarely picked fairly in relation to their actual abilities. Killian Hayes, set to start at point guard on a Pistons roster that is at best confusing, is no different. Those who like Hayes point to his playmaking ability, size, and progress in his shot as indicative that he could become something in the mold of D’Angelo Russell. But Hayes’ struggles, which are in my mind more eye-catching, deserve to be discussed. Much of Hayes’ strengths stem from the pick and roll, so it makes sense to talk about that first. For one, he prefers to stay out of the paint, instead settling for midranges and kickouts rather than to penetrate and force the defending center into a difficult situation. And although he is a skilled passer, his disinterest in aggression and finishing through contact will pose a serious challenge. It also does not help that he is easily the worst athlete selected in the lottery, so his reliance on ball screens will only be more severe in the NBA where he is at more of a comparative disadvantage. Defensively, Hayes show promise with anticipation and size, but the Foxes of the NBA are licking their lips with alacrity just thinking about facing Hayes out on the perimeter.
Pick #4: James Wiseman – Bulls
Grade: B+
The allure of James Wiseman is centered around his physical attributes, and while I normally am wary of liking prospects who fit that description, Wiseman’s verticality, improving jump shot, and floor give me hope that on a superb Warriors organization he can develop into much more than a rim-runner. Needless to say, this was the obvious pick for Bulls to make, and Wiseman, with his paint prowess, is on track to become a real fantasy star.
Pick #5: Onyeka Okongwu – Mavs
Grade: D+
With the breakout campaign of Bam Adebayo, Onyeka Okongwu’s draft stock went sky high. But while one is a prime example of the modern big: switchable, athletic, and versatile, the other is merely a traditional center who happens to be the size of a power forward with the build of a guard. Okongwu’s perceived switchability is mostly a function of draft analysts trying to demonstrate the similarities between him and Adebayo. In addition, playing in a PAC 12 conference with a relatively poor group of big men, he appeared much better to the casual viewer than he really is. While he is a gifted shot-blocker, with only a 7’1” wingspan he will not be as productive in the NBA, and despite some pointing to his free throw percentage as an indication of future floor spacing, his wild form means a couple other things will have to happen before he can do much of anything outside of the paint offensively. When you take all of that, and then remember that he is slotted to be the back up center on a team already chock-full of young talent, his fantasy upside is bleak. This grade is more reflective of who else was available than it does Okongwu himself.
Pick #6: Deni Avdija – Sixers
Grade: B-
Falling from where many (myself included) had him mocked at #4 to Chicago all the way to #9 at Washington is truly awful for Avdija’s fantasy value. In the capital, he’ll join Troy Brown Jr, Isaac Bonga, Rui Hachimura, and Davis Bertans in a battle for the 96 minutes each game afforded by the two forward positions. As a prospect, Avdija is easy to like, with a widespread offensive skillset and impressive lateral quickness. The only question is whether he will be able to demonstrate himself to be most deserving of those coveted wing minutes (hint: he will have to be a more consistent shooter than he is now).
Pick #7: Aleksej Pokusevski – Sixers
Grade: B+
Here we have probably the most surprising pick in the draft, and one that I like quite a bit. I already talked about Pokusevski in the recent Guru Gazette, but to summarize, his exceptionally unique skillset gives him a ceiling like no other prospect. In a draft class lacking clear star talent, Pokusevski is worth a high pick in fantasy drafts, and on a Thunder team with a multitude of draft picks to come in the following years, one can only hope that he is given enough time to develop alongside the incoming slew of young talent he will compete with for minutes.
Pick #8: Devin Vassell – Wizards
Grade: A
The prototypical 3#D prospect, Devin Vassell earns the fist A grade of the draft and it comes for Wizards. While he must put on some weight to slide into the three spot, once he does he is set to become an elite two-way threat. His defensive abilities should mesh with those of Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl to form an exciting young core, and the vast improvement in his off-the-dribble shooting from his freshman to sophomore year at Florida State is highly encouraging for the continuation of his development on that side of the court.
Pick #9: Obi Toppin – Sixers
Grade: D+
A 22 year-old sophomore from Dayton, Obadiah Toppin is a gift to the offense on offense and defense. If his mediocre shooting numbers translate, he should slot in nicely alongside Mitchell Robinson and serve as another interior threat for whatever awful point guard starts for the Knicks next year. While his offensive capabilities are vastly overrated by many, a smaller role will still allow him to be highly productive and be a nice fit on the team. Defensively, there is not a lot to say besides “Holy #$%&, he’s awful.” For the record, I think it likely that advanced stats peg him as a bottom-5 defender league-wide next year.
Pick #10: Tyrese Haliburton – Bulls
Grade: B+
Just like how Haliburton slid to #12 in the NBA draft, he slides a bit here to #10. Another guard who excels in the pick and roll but remains offensively limited, Haliburton should eventually start next to De’Aaron Fox in an odd pairing of explosive speed and 1950s set shots. He is more than capable defensively, and once he puts on more weight and improves his handle, he should be able to carry more of the offensive load, even if he lacks a pull-up jumper.
Pick #11: Patrick Williams – Lakers
Grade: B+
Williams saw his draft stock rise in the month preceding the draft from a late lottery prospect to a possible top five pick, which is where he ended up on draft night. He is as unknown a prospect as any, but not just because he came off the bench. Despite being one of the best off-ball defenders in the class, his lateral quickness is awful, which hinders is on-ball defense. However, some attribute this to a muscle imbalance in his calves, which if sorted out could make him one of the best defensive wings in the class. Similarly, his offensive skillset is a work in progress, but he has significant potential as a floor-spacing, ball handling, and elite finishing wing. If everything comes together for him, taking him at #4 won’t look like a reach. If not, it probably does. At #11 for Lakers, it’s a good pick given his ceiling, especially given the likelihood he becomes a stock monster.
Pick #12: Kira Lewis Jr. – Bucks
Grade: B-
Here is yet another case of a prospect unjustly rising on people’s boards due to a lazy comparison. Although Lewis and Fox are both lightning quick, Fox processes the game better and is a much better decelerator, meaning his speed elevates his game, rather than creates it, as it does for Lewis. The former Alabama point guard found success in the pick and roll, demonstrating his skill at finding the open man with accurate passes from either hand. He also has notable potential as an off-the-dribble shooter, and this will be instrumental in his offensive success. But most important will be his finishing, which is his most glaring weakness. Whereas Fox often throws his body into the defensive big to draw contact, Kira elects to go with arching floaters and push shots, both of which generate lower points per attempt than drawing contact and finishing at the rim or shooting free throws. On a team that likes to run, Lewis will fit in nicely, but it may be some time before he becomes the starter, if at all.
Pick #13: Cole Anthony – Kings
Grade: A-
A preseason top three recruit, Anthony (and UNC) had a massively disappointing year. He failed to reach 40% shooting from the field, and skeptics point to this in arguing that he is nothing more than an inaccurate chucker. But a more comprehensive look at his freshman year reveals he is not entirely to blame, nor should we expect the same player in the NBA. Coming off a knee injury, Anthony was visibly not the same athlete as he was in high school. Moreover, despite a high preseason rank, UNC had a historically bad season; a general lack of talent and spacing surrounding Anthony left Roy Williams little choice but to rely on Anthony for a large part of the offensive load. As a result, Anthony’s numbers were greatly deflated, and his passing abilities have become massively underappreciated. At Orlando, with Vucevic and the spacing of Fournier, Gordon, and eventually Isaac, Anthony should thrive as a shot creating point guard who can play on and off the ball, while providing above-average defense.
Pick #14: Isaac Okoro – Bucks
Grade: B
Isaac Okoro presents another great example of the importance of taking into account a prospect’s team in their evaluation. Okoro’s glaring weakness—that being the inability to shoot well or consistently—was somewhat ameliorated in Bruce Pearl’s offense that emphasized spacing and shooting. This playstyle allowed Okoro to thrive as a slasher and reactive passer, the latter of which is greatly encouraging for his offensive ceiling; while the archetype of lockdown wing defender who is useless offensively is fairly common, Okoro’s ability to collapse the defense and finish or make a good pass elevates his potential. The only reason that this pick is not graded better is due to his fantasy appeal; he projects to be one of those players who is much better in real life than in fantasy—his reluctance to chase steals or blocks, and playing alongside ball-dominant guards in Garland, Sexton, and Porter Jr. limits his fantasy ceiling.
Pick #15: Tyrese Maxey – Suns
Grade: A
Once again, Maxey’s college numbers were greatly influenced by his role. Playing alongside Immanuel Quickley and Ashton Hagans, Maxey was unable to show off some of the passing and ball-handling that makes him a real combo guard. Instead, he shot under 30% from three and was used almost entirely off-ball, which, while it is the best use for him, made it harder for him to show off some of his skills. While Maxey joins Philadelphia in a stacked position, he would be a superb compliment to Ben Simmons down the road.
Pick #16: Theo Maledon – Kings
Grade: A
Like Anthony, Maledon dropped in the eyes of analyzers from the preseason to the draft. Considered a top ten pick then, Maledon fell to the second round of the NBA draft for…no good reason. Yes, he did suffer a shoulder injury, but he continued putting up respectable numbers in the French League as the back-up point guard on one of the best teams there. On ASVEL, he cemented himself as the most poised and mature point guard in the class, in addition to showcasing sublime pick and roll play. But where he really sets himself apart from many of the other high-profile guards in this class is through his shooting. A career 38% three-point shooter, Maledon’s traditional form and consistency makes him more NBA ready than Ball, Hayes, or Anthony. Also, while ASVEL’s anti-switching and rotation-averse scheme made it hard to judge Maledon as an off-ball defender, his size and IQ mean he could guard either guard position down the road and be a disruptor off-ball.
Pick #17: Jaden McDaniels – Kings
Grade: B+
The third Kings pick, and the third preseason top ten prospect that fell throughout the year. Like Anthony, McDaniels suffered from a poor freshman year; he also shot below 40% from the field and took plenty of shots that he probably shouldn’t have. But while much of Anthony’s struggles can be linked to his team, the same doesn’t really hold here. Rather, McDaniels hurt himself by taking too many contested pull-up midranges. He isn’t a great finisher and probably never will be, but he has a nice stroke and should be able to hit open threes at a respectable clip when he won’t garner the same isolation opportunities he did in college. Analyzing him defensively also presents a difficult situation, since Washington played zone defense, enabling McDaniels, with his long wingspan, to affect passes and shots more than if they had played traditional man-to-man defense. Still, he displayed impressive shot-blocking ability, both in terms of timing and verticality. He may not start immediately at Minnesota, but his appeal as a 3&D wing could provide exactly what is needed alongside the offensively minded trio of Russel, Edwards, and Towns.
Pick #18: Immanuel Quickley – Sixers
Grade: D+
Immanuel Quickley should provide the Knicks with much-needed shooting from the guard positions. Unfortunately, he’s just not good enough to where you can confidently say that he will be their starting point guard (even given the low bar to do so). I think instead he joins the already overpopulated group of Knicks point guards that would be 2nd or 3rd string guys on any other teams, but instead compete for starting minutes and struggle to provide what the team needs.
Pick #19: RJ Hampton – Wizards
Grade: B+
At #19, Wizards snags the last of the high-upside-but-not-very-good-and-probably-will-bust players, which are exactly the kind of prospect to target in the second round of fantasy leagues. RJ Hampton has a unique combination of a lightning-quick first step and explosive leaping ability, it’s just everywhere else needs work. The Nuggets provide the perfect location for that, and though he’ll always be an awkward fit next to Murray, he could still generate value playing ~25 minutes off the bench.
Pick #20: Precious Achuiwa – Bulls
Grade: D+
To me, no pick was more surprising in the NBA draft than this one. The Heat have just made the finals, much of which was thanks to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Rather than go for the common denominator of Kentucky and select Tyrese Maxey, they decided to go with a player who, aside from being flat-out bad, isn’t close to fitting on their starting roster. Achiuwa may have the lowest basketball IQ in the class; he plays wild and heavily relies on his athleticism. I would have given this pick a worse grade had he ended up on any other team, but because the Heat are the Heat, I think it’s possible Achiuwa gets enough stocks off the bench to where this pick isn’t too awful.
Pick #21: Tre Jones – Kings
Grade: B
An interesting selection here, of a player who was picked 20 slots later in the NBA to the Spurs. Tre Jones is the perfect back-up point guard for any team; he’s probably better than the average back-up point guard already. He can shoot it fairly well (although it remains to be seen if his improvement here from freshman to sophomore year was at all fluky), play out of the pick and roll, and defend. The Spurs, with their assortment of young talent, have yet to find a young player good enough to really stake out their position. Thus, in my eyes Jones still has a chance to beat out--or just replace when they leave next year in free agency—Dejounte Murray or Derrick White for the role of starting point guard.
Pick #22: Aaron Nesmith – Suns
Grade: B
Just like how Okongwu benefited from the success of Adebayo, Nesmith’s stock was driven upwards thanks to the success of sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. The two, however, are nowhere near to one another in terms of ability. Robinson works as a shooter because his release is fast and manipulable, and he’s good enough that he can be a subpar defender and still be worth playing high minutes. Nesmith is the same in that he’s poor defensively and doesn’t provide anything besides shooting offensively, except he’s just not as a good of a shooter. Although he did shoot above 50% this year, all but one of his games were against non-conference opponents, so we weren’t able to see by how much he would regress when he played SEC foes. But more importantly, he has a slight hitch in his shot, and despite having excellent footwork, didn’t show that he can shoot without his feet set like truly elite shooters can. Unless he improves a lot defensively, there’s no real path to being anything more than a very good floor spacer who is bad at everything else, and that’s just not good enough to get minutes on a contending team.
Pick #23: Malachi Flynn – Suns
Grade: C-
Another pick that was surprising to many in the real draft, and another instance where you have to decide how much trust you are going to put into elite GMs like Masai Ujiri. Flynn is a well-rounded offensive guard: he can shoot, pass, and finish. He won DPOY in his conference, too. The concerns, then, arise from a lack of good competition, age, and athleticism. All three of these I think are less important than the fact that he was drafted to the best organization in basketball, so although I don’t particularly like Flynn as a prospect, I’m going to grade this pick as though I like him a bit more.
Pick #24: Jalen Smith – Raptors
Grade: D+
Like all overdrafted prospects, there’s a reason for it. In the eyes of too many, Smith fits the archetype of 3&D big man who fits on all NBA rosters. In reality, he is a project who has shown flashes of shooting and shot-blocking, but has a ways to go to be a positive in the NBA. While his release is quick, he shot low volume and not a great percentage, suggesting he’ll be an average NBA shooter at best. He doesn’t suffer from tunnel vision as much as some other big men, but he provides close to nothing offensively outside of shooting. His finishing may be close to passable, but the IQ and athleticism will be tough to fix. Defensively, he is as stiff as Wizards’ pants when he sees the name “Darius Bazley”, and frequently falls asleep and misses rotations, which is an impressive feat for a big man. It should also be noted that at 6’10” and sticks for legs, he really shouldn’t be expected to play center, but he is far from mobile enough to move one position down, which presents a challenge for the Suns when they decide how they want to fit him in next to Ayton and Johnson.
Pick #25: Desmond Bane – Nuggets
Grade: A-
Bane is the most proven shooter in the class, having shot well above 40% from distance in four seasons at TCU. He can shoot from distance, off the dribble, or off the catch. There’s also a little bit of pick and roll ball-handling upside, although he’s unlikely to have much opportunity for that at Memphis. And although many like to point out that his wingspan is shorter than he is tall, he holds his own defensively, and despite sometimes allowing his man to back cut him, makes enough good rotations to make up for it. He joins a Grizzlies squad that could use shooting off the bench and depth at the wing position, and if he manages to prove himself defensively, he could be a better fit long-term with Morant and Jackson Jr. than Brooks is now.
Pick #26: Josh Green – Nuggets
Grade: C-
The only of the three Arizona products to be drafted in Guru, Josh Green heads to the Mavericks on a team that already has sufficient depth at the wing positions. As everyone knows, the most valuable skill in today’s NBA is shooting, and that’s exactly where Green struggles. He may have the quickest hips in the class, NBA athleticism and some flashes of anticipatory passes, but until he learns to not dribble out of open threes and manages to shoot them consistently, he will be too much of a liability on that side of the court before he sees any real minutes. With that being said, if he does manage to sort that out he could be an intriguing option alongside Doncic and Porzingis, but with the usage Doncic takes up Green’s ancillary skills may never matter and he’ll forever take a back seat to 3&D options like Finney-Smith or Richardson.
Pick #27: Daniel Oturu – Raptors
Grade: D
Oturu probably won’t get any minutes that aren’t in garbage time this year, but that’s to be expected for a second round pick joining a contending team. Like Jalen Smith, Oturu also benefited from the allure of a modern big man, but is far from that. He shot just 37% from three on 1.7 attempts per game, and only 71% from the free throw line. His form is stiff and slow, and, suffering from acute cases of tunnel vision and immobility, has large strides to make before he will be playable offensively. And as an undersized center with no switchability, he’ll have to improve his rim protection and general awareness to be useful on that end.
Pick #28: Saddiq Bey – Sixers
Grade: C-
Saddiq Bey might just reach the minimum defensive threshold for a big wing with a good three-point shot. Although some think of him as a versatile defensive wing, he doesn’t move his feet well enough to guard NBA threes. On a team with enough fours and fives for an entire NBA division, it seems likely that he’ll be forced to play the three where his on-ball defense will be exposed. But if Dwane Casey recognizes that he’s better at the four, there’s a path to minutes far, far, down the road.
Pick #29: Isaiah Stewart – Clippers
Grade: D-
The only role Isaiah Stewart should serve an NBA team in 2020 is that of a team bodyguard. His bully-ball style is horribly antiquated and does not warrant any real playing time, even on the Pistons. Fortunately for the Guru Clippers, the Detroit Pistons are among the only NBA teams dumb enough to play him, so he does have an outside chance at minutes. And given his idolization of the paint, he should generate enough rebounds and blocks to be fantasy relevant if only given 20-25 minutes. But even that minute count is unlikely, and players as bad as Stewart only get so long to prove themselves, so it’ll take a series of unlikely occurrences for this pick to end up a good one.
Pick #30: Tyrell Terry – Mavericks
Grade: B
Point guards who shoot well often earn the designation of combo guard, even when a better description would be lead-guard who can play off-ball. If Terry plays alongside Brunson off the bench, he provides a slick offensive threat as an elite floor spacer alongside Brunson’s penetration, but would be a sieve defensively. It would take him becoming the starter instead of Hardaway to be fantasy relevant just from his shooting, so the most likely path to real fantasy value is through steals. He does have the highest basketball IQ of the class and was genuinely mind-boggling in his defensive anticipation at Stanford, so I like this pick as betting on a legitimately good prospect with paths to value from offense or defense.
Pick #31: Grant Riller – Bulls
Grade: C-
The 24 year-old Charleston product will be hard-pressed to find playing time in Charlotte with too many guards less deserving of minutes but young enough to still get them. Riller is easily the most polished offensive player in the class and would fit much better on a team looking for an NBA-ready 6th man to provide scoring spark. Instead, the Hornets will be able to take their time developing Ball, Graham, and Monk, and are too incompetent to find a deal for Rozier. If Riller is traded, he could thrive in a Lou Williams-type role.
Pick #32: Payton Pritchard
Grade: D-
Danny Ainge picked Pritchard hoping he’ll be what they wanted from Carson Edwards. Unfortunately for him, Pritchard is no better, and much to the chagrin of Celtics fans the team will still be in need of a back-up point guard come next season. There’s nothing about this pick to like, but I didn’t want to draw attention away from Ball’s F, so I’ll be generous here.
Team Grades:
Bucks (LaMelo Ball, Kira Lewis Jr., Isaac Okoro): C-
Mavericks (Anthony Edwards, Onyeka Okongwu, Tyrell Terry): B-
Sixers (Killian Hayes, Aleksej Pokusevski, Deni Advija, Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Saddiq Bey): C
Bulls (James Wiseman, Tyrese Haliburton, Precious Achuiwa, Grant Riller, Payton Pritchard): B-
Wizards (Devin Vassell, RJ Hampton): A-
Lakers (Patrick Williams): B+
Kings (Cole Anthony, Theo Maledon, Jaden McDaniels, Tre Jones): A-
Suns (Tyrese Maxey, Aaron Nesmith, Malachi Flynn): B+
Raptors (Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu): D
Nuggets (Desmond Bane, Josh Green): B-
Clippers (Isaiah Stewart): D-
To be clear, each pick will be graded using the following criteria:
1. Was this the obvious, or consensus pick?
a. If so, was it a good pick, and how good?
b. If not, was it a good pick, and how good?
2. Is this player likely to outperform their pick in terms of fantasy performance over their career?
To Note:
1. No weighting will be given to trades made by GMs preceding their pick, nor how the players’ developmental timeline matches up with that of their fantasy team.
2. These grades largely reflect my own opinions and should not be taken too seriously.
Pick #1: LaMelo Ball – Bucks
Grade: F
Many draft analysts saw this year’s class to consist of a “top three” of Edwards, Wiseman, and Ball. While I believe Edwards and Wiseman to be among top prospects in this class, to consider Ball in the same tier as those two is to succumb to a variety of psychological biases. LaMelo Ball, high school phenom, is the best passer in this class with an advanced handle…and that’s where the positives end. His shot is clearly broken, and his shot selection of deep threes early in the shot clock and 16 foot floaters do nothing to assuage concerns of the more astute draft analysts. Moreover, his finishing package is made up of mostly “jelly” finishes (think Kyrie Irving), but his lack of both vertical burst and willingness to take and ability to finish through contact renders his finishing highly inadequate. Defensively he is difficult to evaluate because he does not seem to care whatsoever; he seldom gets into a good defensive stance, is unable to evade screens, too lazy for rotations, and allergic to the key basketball skill that is effort. Why, then, is he considered an elite prospect? Quite simply, his last name is Ball, and good handles and slick passing are enjoyable to watch. At Charlotte, he should get ample playing time his rookie season, where LaMelo fans will have to hope that he develops a workable jumper, begins to care on defense, and realizes that he is no longer playing high school basketball.
Pick #2: Anthony Edwards – Mavs
Grade: B
I can confidently say that Anthony Edwards will end up somewhere between Dion Waiters and Dwayne Wade. He is easily the most talented player in the class; his footwork, patience, and ability in isolation situations is unparalleled, and his athleticism and size give hope that once he finds the will to try defensively he will be a truly impactful two-way player.
Pick #3: Killian Hayes – Sixers
Grade: D+
In 2020, international prospects are still rarely picked fairly in relation to their actual abilities. Killian Hayes, set to start at point guard on a Pistons roster that is at best confusing, is no different. Those who like Hayes point to his playmaking ability, size, and progress in his shot as indicative that he could become something in the mold of D’Angelo Russell. But Hayes’ struggles, which are in my mind more eye-catching, deserve to be discussed. Much of Hayes’ strengths stem from the pick and roll, so it makes sense to talk about that first. For one, he prefers to stay out of the paint, instead settling for midranges and kickouts rather than to penetrate and force the defending center into a difficult situation. And although he is a skilled passer, his disinterest in aggression and finishing through contact will pose a serious challenge. It also does not help that he is easily the worst athlete selected in the lottery, so his reliance on ball screens will only be more severe in the NBA where he is at more of a comparative disadvantage. Defensively, Hayes show promise with anticipation and size, but the Foxes of the NBA are licking their lips with alacrity just thinking about facing Hayes out on the perimeter.
Pick #4: James Wiseman – Bulls
Grade: B+
The allure of James Wiseman is centered around his physical attributes, and while I normally am wary of liking prospects who fit that description, Wiseman’s verticality, improving jump shot, and floor give me hope that on a superb Warriors organization he can develop into much more than a rim-runner. Needless to say, this was the obvious pick for Bulls to make, and Wiseman, with his paint prowess, is on track to become a real fantasy star.
Pick #5: Onyeka Okongwu – Mavs
Grade: D+
With the breakout campaign of Bam Adebayo, Onyeka Okongwu’s draft stock went sky high. But while one is a prime example of the modern big: switchable, athletic, and versatile, the other is merely a traditional center who happens to be the size of a power forward with the build of a guard. Okongwu’s perceived switchability is mostly a function of draft analysts trying to demonstrate the similarities between him and Adebayo. In addition, playing in a PAC 12 conference with a relatively poor group of big men, he appeared much better to the casual viewer than he really is. While he is a gifted shot-blocker, with only a 7’1” wingspan he will not be as productive in the NBA, and despite some pointing to his free throw percentage as an indication of future floor spacing, his wild form means a couple other things will have to happen before he can do much of anything outside of the paint offensively. When you take all of that, and then remember that he is slotted to be the back up center on a team already chock-full of young talent, his fantasy upside is bleak. This grade is more reflective of who else was available than it does Okongwu himself.
Pick #6: Deni Avdija – Sixers
Grade: B-
Falling from where many (myself included) had him mocked at #4 to Chicago all the way to #9 at Washington is truly awful for Avdija’s fantasy value. In the capital, he’ll join Troy Brown Jr, Isaac Bonga, Rui Hachimura, and Davis Bertans in a battle for the 96 minutes each game afforded by the two forward positions. As a prospect, Avdija is easy to like, with a widespread offensive skillset and impressive lateral quickness. The only question is whether he will be able to demonstrate himself to be most deserving of those coveted wing minutes (hint: he will have to be a more consistent shooter than he is now).
Pick #7: Aleksej Pokusevski – Sixers
Grade: B+
Here we have probably the most surprising pick in the draft, and one that I like quite a bit. I already talked about Pokusevski in the recent Guru Gazette, but to summarize, his exceptionally unique skillset gives him a ceiling like no other prospect. In a draft class lacking clear star talent, Pokusevski is worth a high pick in fantasy drafts, and on a Thunder team with a multitude of draft picks to come in the following years, one can only hope that he is given enough time to develop alongside the incoming slew of young talent he will compete with for minutes.
Pick #8: Devin Vassell – Wizards
Grade: A
The prototypical 3#D prospect, Devin Vassell earns the fist A grade of the draft and it comes for Wizards. While he must put on some weight to slide into the three spot, once he does he is set to become an elite two-way threat. His defensive abilities should mesh with those of Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl to form an exciting young core, and the vast improvement in his off-the-dribble shooting from his freshman to sophomore year at Florida State is highly encouraging for the continuation of his development on that side of the court.
Pick #9: Obi Toppin – Sixers
Grade: D+
A 22 year-old sophomore from Dayton, Obadiah Toppin is a gift to the offense on offense and defense. If his mediocre shooting numbers translate, he should slot in nicely alongside Mitchell Robinson and serve as another interior threat for whatever awful point guard starts for the Knicks next year. While his offensive capabilities are vastly overrated by many, a smaller role will still allow him to be highly productive and be a nice fit on the team. Defensively, there is not a lot to say besides “Holy #$%&, he’s awful.” For the record, I think it likely that advanced stats peg him as a bottom-5 defender league-wide next year.
Pick #10: Tyrese Haliburton – Bulls
Grade: B+
Just like how Haliburton slid to #12 in the NBA draft, he slides a bit here to #10. Another guard who excels in the pick and roll but remains offensively limited, Haliburton should eventually start next to De’Aaron Fox in an odd pairing of explosive speed and 1950s set shots. He is more than capable defensively, and once he puts on more weight and improves his handle, he should be able to carry more of the offensive load, even if he lacks a pull-up jumper.
Pick #11: Patrick Williams – Lakers
Grade: B+
Williams saw his draft stock rise in the month preceding the draft from a late lottery prospect to a possible top five pick, which is where he ended up on draft night. He is as unknown a prospect as any, but not just because he came off the bench. Despite being one of the best off-ball defenders in the class, his lateral quickness is awful, which hinders is on-ball defense. However, some attribute this to a muscle imbalance in his calves, which if sorted out could make him one of the best defensive wings in the class. Similarly, his offensive skillset is a work in progress, but he has significant potential as a floor-spacing, ball handling, and elite finishing wing. If everything comes together for him, taking him at #4 won’t look like a reach. If not, it probably does. At #11 for Lakers, it’s a good pick given his ceiling, especially given the likelihood he becomes a stock monster.
Pick #12: Kira Lewis Jr. – Bucks
Grade: B-
Here is yet another case of a prospect unjustly rising on people’s boards due to a lazy comparison. Although Lewis and Fox are both lightning quick, Fox processes the game better and is a much better decelerator, meaning his speed elevates his game, rather than creates it, as it does for Lewis. The former Alabama point guard found success in the pick and roll, demonstrating his skill at finding the open man with accurate passes from either hand. He also has notable potential as an off-the-dribble shooter, and this will be instrumental in his offensive success. But most important will be his finishing, which is his most glaring weakness. Whereas Fox often throws his body into the defensive big to draw contact, Kira elects to go with arching floaters and push shots, both of which generate lower points per attempt than drawing contact and finishing at the rim or shooting free throws. On a team that likes to run, Lewis will fit in nicely, but it may be some time before he becomes the starter, if at all.
Pick #13: Cole Anthony – Kings
Grade: A-
A preseason top three recruit, Anthony (and UNC) had a massively disappointing year. He failed to reach 40% shooting from the field, and skeptics point to this in arguing that he is nothing more than an inaccurate chucker. But a more comprehensive look at his freshman year reveals he is not entirely to blame, nor should we expect the same player in the NBA. Coming off a knee injury, Anthony was visibly not the same athlete as he was in high school. Moreover, despite a high preseason rank, UNC had a historically bad season; a general lack of talent and spacing surrounding Anthony left Roy Williams little choice but to rely on Anthony for a large part of the offensive load. As a result, Anthony’s numbers were greatly deflated, and his passing abilities have become massively underappreciated. At Orlando, with Vucevic and the spacing of Fournier, Gordon, and eventually Isaac, Anthony should thrive as a shot creating point guard who can play on and off the ball, while providing above-average defense.
Pick #14: Isaac Okoro – Bucks
Grade: B
Isaac Okoro presents another great example of the importance of taking into account a prospect’s team in their evaluation. Okoro’s glaring weakness—that being the inability to shoot well or consistently—was somewhat ameliorated in Bruce Pearl’s offense that emphasized spacing and shooting. This playstyle allowed Okoro to thrive as a slasher and reactive passer, the latter of which is greatly encouraging for his offensive ceiling; while the archetype of lockdown wing defender who is useless offensively is fairly common, Okoro’s ability to collapse the defense and finish or make a good pass elevates his potential. The only reason that this pick is not graded better is due to his fantasy appeal; he projects to be one of those players who is much better in real life than in fantasy—his reluctance to chase steals or blocks, and playing alongside ball-dominant guards in Garland, Sexton, and Porter Jr. limits his fantasy ceiling.
Pick #15: Tyrese Maxey – Suns
Grade: A
Once again, Maxey’s college numbers were greatly influenced by his role. Playing alongside Immanuel Quickley and Ashton Hagans, Maxey was unable to show off some of the passing and ball-handling that makes him a real combo guard. Instead, he shot under 30% from three and was used almost entirely off-ball, which, while it is the best use for him, made it harder for him to show off some of his skills. While Maxey joins Philadelphia in a stacked position, he would be a superb compliment to Ben Simmons down the road.
Pick #16: Theo Maledon – Kings
Grade: A
Like Anthony, Maledon dropped in the eyes of analyzers from the preseason to the draft. Considered a top ten pick then, Maledon fell to the second round of the NBA draft for…no good reason. Yes, he did suffer a shoulder injury, but he continued putting up respectable numbers in the French League as the back-up point guard on one of the best teams there. On ASVEL, he cemented himself as the most poised and mature point guard in the class, in addition to showcasing sublime pick and roll play. But where he really sets himself apart from many of the other high-profile guards in this class is through his shooting. A career 38% three-point shooter, Maledon’s traditional form and consistency makes him more NBA ready than Ball, Hayes, or Anthony. Also, while ASVEL’s anti-switching and rotation-averse scheme made it hard to judge Maledon as an off-ball defender, his size and IQ mean he could guard either guard position down the road and be a disruptor off-ball.
Pick #17: Jaden McDaniels – Kings
Grade: B+
The third Kings pick, and the third preseason top ten prospect that fell throughout the year. Like Anthony, McDaniels suffered from a poor freshman year; he also shot below 40% from the field and took plenty of shots that he probably shouldn’t have. But while much of Anthony’s struggles can be linked to his team, the same doesn’t really hold here. Rather, McDaniels hurt himself by taking too many contested pull-up midranges. He isn’t a great finisher and probably never will be, but he has a nice stroke and should be able to hit open threes at a respectable clip when he won’t garner the same isolation opportunities he did in college. Analyzing him defensively also presents a difficult situation, since Washington played zone defense, enabling McDaniels, with his long wingspan, to affect passes and shots more than if they had played traditional man-to-man defense. Still, he displayed impressive shot-blocking ability, both in terms of timing and verticality. He may not start immediately at Minnesota, but his appeal as a 3&D wing could provide exactly what is needed alongside the offensively minded trio of Russel, Edwards, and Towns.
Pick #18: Immanuel Quickley – Sixers
Grade: D+
Immanuel Quickley should provide the Knicks with much-needed shooting from the guard positions. Unfortunately, he’s just not good enough to where you can confidently say that he will be their starting point guard (even given the low bar to do so). I think instead he joins the already overpopulated group of Knicks point guards that would be 2nd or 3rd string guys on any other teams, but instead compete for starting minutes and struggle to provide what the team needs.
Pick #19: RJ Hampton – Wizards
Grade: B+
At #19, Wizards snags the last of the high-upside-but-not-very-good-and-probably-will-bust players, which are exactly the kind of prospect to target in the second round of fantasy leagues. RJ Hampton has a unique combination of a lightning-quick first step and explosive leaping ability, it’s just everywhere else needs work. The Nuggets provide the perfect location for that, and though he’ll always be an awkward fit next to Murray, he could still generate value playing ~25 minutes off the bench.
Pick #20: Precious Achuiwa – Bulls
Grade: D+
To me, no pick was more surprising in the NBA draft than this one. The Heat have just made the finals, much of which was thanks to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Rather than go for the common denominator of Kentucky and select Tyrese Maxey, they decided to go with a player who, aside from being flat-out bad, isn’t close to fitting on their starting roster. Achiuwa may have the lowest basketball IQ in the class; he plays wild and heavily relies on his athleticism. I would have given this pick a worse grade had he ended up on any other team, but because the Heat are the Heat, I think it’s possible Achiuwa gets enough stocks off the bench to where this pick isn’t too awful.
Pick #21: Tre Jones – Kings
Grade: B
An interesting selection here, of a player who was picked 20 slots later in the NBA to the Spurs. Tre Jones is the perfect back-up point guard for any team; he’s probably better than the average back-up point guard already. He can shoot it fairly well (although it remains to be seen if his improvement here from freshman to sophomore year was at all fluky), play out of the pick and roll, and defend. The Spurs, with their assortment of young talent, have yet to find a young player good enough to really stake out their position. Thus, in my eyes Jones still has a chance to beat out--or just replace when they leave next year in free agency—Dejounte Murray or Derrick White for the role of starting point guard.
Pick #22: Aaron Nesmith – Suns
Grade: B
Just like how Okongwu benefited from the success of Adebayo, Nesmith’s stock was driven upwards thanks to the success of sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. The two, however, are nowhere near to one another in terms of ability. Robinson works as a shooter because his release is fast and manipulable, and he’s good enough that he can be a subpar defender and still be worth playing high minutes. Nesmith is the same in that he’s poor defensively and doesn’t provide anything besides shooting offensively, except he’s just not as a good of a shooter. Although he did shoot above 50% this year, all but one of his games were against non-conference opponents, so we weren’t able to see by how much he would regress when he played SEC foes. But more importantly, he has a slight hitch in his shot, and despite having excellent footwork, didn’t show that he can shoot without his feet set like truly elite shooters can. Unless he improves a lot defensively, there’s no real path to being anything more than a very good floor spacer who is bad at everything else, and that’s just not good enough to get minutes on a contending team.
Pick #23: Malachi Flynn – Suns
Grade: C-
Another pick that was surprising to many in the real draft, and another instance where you have to decide how much trust you are going to put into elite GMs like Masai Ujiri. Flynn is a well-rounded offensive guard: he can shoot, pass, and finish. He won DPOY in his conference, too. The concerns, then, arise from a lack of good competition, age, and athleticism. All three of these I think are less important than the fact that he was drafted to the best organization in basketball, so although I don’t particularly like Flynn as a prospect, I’m going to grade this pick as though I like him a bit more.
Pick #24: Jalen Smith – Raptors
Grade: D+
Like all overdrafted prospects, there’s a reason for it. In the eyes of too many, Smith fits the archetype of 3&D big man who fits on all NBA rosters. In reality, he is a project who has shown flashes of shooting and shot-blocking, but has a ways to go to be a positive in the NBA. While his release is quick, he shot low volume and not a great percentage, suggesting he’ll be an average NBA shooter at best. He doesn’t suffer from tunnel vision as much as some other big men, but he provides close to nothing offensively outside of shooting. His finishing may be close to passable, but the IQ and athleticism will be tough to fix. Defensively, he is as stiff as Wizards’ pants when he sees the name “Darius Bazley”, and frequently falls asleep and misses rotations, which is an impressive feat for a big man. It should also be noted that at 6’10” and sticks for legs, he really shouldn’t be expected to play center, but he is far from mobile enough to move one position down, which presents a challenge for the Suns when they decide how they want to fit him in next to Ayton and Johnson.
Pick #25: Desmond Bane – Nuggets
Grade: A-
Bane is the most proven shooter in the class, having shot well above 40% from distance in four seasons at TCU. He can shoot from distance, off the dribble, or off the catch. There’s also a little bit of pick and roll ball-handling upside, although he’s unlikely to have much opportunity for that at Memphis. And although many like to point out that his wingspan is shorter than he is tall, he holds his own defensively, and despite sometimes allowing his man to back cut him, makes enough good rotations to make up for it. He joins a Grizzlies squad that could use shooting off the bench and depth at the wing position, and if he manages to prove himself defensively, he could be a better fit long-term with Morant and Jackson Jr. than Brooks is now.
Pick #26: Josh Green – Nuggets
Grade: C-
The only of the three Arizona products to be drafted in Guru, Josh Green heads to the Mavericks on a team that already has sufficient depth at the wing positions. As everyone knows, the most valuable skill in today’s NBA is shooting, and that’s exactly where Green struggles. He may have the quickest hips in the class, NBA athleticism and some flashes of anticipatory passes, but until he learns to not dribble out of open threes and manages to shoot them consistently, he will be too much of a liability on that side of the court before he sees any real minutes. With that being said, if he does manage to sort that out he could be an intriguing option alongside Doncic and Porzingis, but with the usage Doncic takes up Green’s ancillary skills may never matter and he’ll forever take a back seat to 3&D options like Finney-Smith or Richardson.
Pick #27: Daniel Oturu – Raptors
Grade: D
Oturu probably won’t get any minutes that aren’t in garbage time this year, but that’s to be expected for a second round pick joining a contending team. Like Jalen Smith, Oturu also benefited from the allure of a modern big man, but is far from that. He shot just 37% from three on 1.7 attempts per game, and only 71% from the free throw line. His form is stiff and slow, and, suffering from acute cases of tunnel vision and immobility, has large strides to make before he will be playable offensively. And as an undersized center with no switchability, he’ll have to improve his rim protection and general awareness to be useful on that end.
Pick #28: Saddiq Bey – Sixers
Grade: C-
Saddiq Bey might just reach the minimum defensive threshold for a big wing with a good three-point shot. Although some think of him as a versatile defensive wing, he doesn’t move his feet well enough to guard NBA threes. On a team with enough fours and fives for an entire NBA division, it seems likely that he’ll be forced to play the three where his on-ball defense will be exposed. But if Dwane Casey recognizes that he’s better at the four, there’s a path to minutes far, far, down the road.
Pick #29: Isaiah Stewart – Clippers
Grade: D-
The only role Isaiah Stewart should serve an NBA team in 2020 is that of a team bodyguard. His bully-ball style is horribly antiquated and does not warrant any real playing time, even on the Pistons. Fortunately for the Guru Clippers, the Detroit Pistons are among the only NBA teams dumb enough to play him, so he does have an outside chance at minutes. And given his idolization of the paint, he should generate enough rebounds and blocks to be fantasy relevant if only given 20-25 minutes. But even that minute count is unlikely, and players as bad as Stewart only get so long to prove themselves, so it’ll take a series of unlikely occurrences for this pick to end up a good one.
Pick #30: Tyrell Terry – Mavericks
Grade: B
Point guards who shoot well often earn the designation of combo guard, even when a better description would be lead-guard who can play off-ball. If Terry plays alongside Brunson off the bench, he provides a slick offensive threat as an elite floor spacer alongside Brunson’s penetration, but would be a sieve defensively. It would take him becoming the starter instead of Hardaway to be fantasy relevant just from his shooting, so the most likely path to real fantasy value is through steals. He does have the highest basketball IQ of the class and was genuinely mind-boggling in his defensive anticipation at Stanford, so I like this pick as betting on a legitimately good prospect with paths to value from offense or defense.
Pick #31: Grant Riller – Bulls
Grade: C-
The 24 year-old Charleston product will be hard-pressed to find playing time in Charlotte with too many guards less deserving of minutes but young enough to still get them. Riller is easily the most polished offensive player in the class and would fit much better on a team looking for an NBA-ready 6th man to provide scoring spark. Instead, the Hornets will be able to take their time developing Ball, Graham, and Monk, and are too incompetent to find a deal for Rozier. If Riller is traded, he could thrive in a Lou Williams-type role.
Pick #32: Payton Pritchard
Grade: D-
Danny Ainge picked Pritchard hoping he’ll be what they wanted from Carson Edwards. Unfortunately for him, Pritchard is no better, and much to the chagrin of Celtics fans the team will still be in need of a back-up point guard come next season. There’s nothing about this pick to like, but I didn’t want to draw attention away from Ball’s F, so I’ll be generous here.
Team Grades:
Bucks (LaMelo Ball, Kira Lewis Jr., Isaac Okoro): C-
Mavericks (Anthony Edwards, Onyeka Okongwu, Tyrell Terry): B-
Sixers (Killian Hayes, Aleksej Pokusevski, Deni Advija, Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Saddiq Bey): C
Bulls (James Wiseman, Tyrese Haliburton, Precious Achuiwa, Grant Riller, Payton Pritchard): B-
Wizards (Devin Vassell, RJ Hampton): A-
Lakers (Patrick Williams): B+
Kings (Cole Anthony, Theo Maledon, Jaden McDaniels, Tre Jones): A-
Suns (Tyrese Maxey, Aaron Nesmith, Malachi Flynn): B+
Raptors (Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu): D
Nuggets (Desmond Bane, Josh Green): B-
Clippers (Isaiah Stewart): D-
8.5.2
8.5.2