LAL - Blazers

[Los Angeles Lakers]

Lakers Trade

PF / C Anthony Davis 21,000,000 x 5 years 

Total = 21,000,000

Blazers Trade

PF / C Lauri Markkanen 2,800,000 / 3,800,000

PG Lonzo Ball 6,500,000 / 8,500,000

SG Kevin Huerter 2,000,000 / 3,000,000 

2021 Portland Blazers 2nd rounder 


Total = 11,300,000

[Portland TrailBlazers]

I accept. We're pushing in all the chips, baby! Will have to figure out the cap situation though...

[Phoenix Suns]

Trade Denied.

Lakers threw away half his team to give Knicks a free title.

Then he threw away most of his team trying to give Pels a title.

Now he's trying to throw away a top 5 fantasy player to give Blazers a title.

He does the same thing every year: logs in for 5 minutes, ignores half the PMs from multiple GMs, and casually throws away and dismantles his team with no discernable purpose and ruins months of work by other GMs who aren't lucky enough to get a free handout.

He then logs out for another 11 months, inactive and uncaring about the league.

He's completely ruined the Lakers franchise for any future GM inheriting the team with this move, and the job of the Trade Committee is to maintain value for franchises for future GMs. This is the final straw.

He's been inactive for years, and constantly trolling the league by throwing the entire competitive balance out of whack with 1 ridiculous, insane trade he's just making for shock value because he's casually cruel and uncaring, and thinks it's funny and entertains him for a few minutes, then doesn't think about Guru for another year.

[Los Angeles Lakers]

I accept this Trade looking to add depth and youth to my rebuilding team to get the wheels back on track and I will be doing this will Ball , Kevin and Lauri not to mention I traded the 2nd rounder for Steven Adams as well to get more pieces.

Also look like Guru is now accepting a TC position please applications to Wolves or Mavs to have a proper shot. Please leave emotions at the door

[Dallas Mavericks]

Lakers - What's your plan here? Are you just pulling the trigger on trades whenever they land in your lap? Why are you suddenly looking to trade Anthony Davis when you finally signed him to a reasonable contract?

I don't know how much thought went into this trade, but I think you can get more for AD. The reason we have a committee before allowing trades is to stop GMs from destroying their team and then leaving because they're bored, leaving behind an enormous mess that harms the league we work hard for. It's hugely frustrating because it takes the league years to recover. I could maybe stomach this trade if your team had a few more stars, but as it is, I reject.

[Phoenix Suns]

I'd like to offer a more detailed, nuanced explanation that I've posted elsewhere for future generations (i.e., Baby Wolves) and when evaluating one of the few rejected trades in Guru History, since I didn't go into great depth in my initial response.

1) AD, a top 5 dynasty superstar, for the #45, #70 and #82 contracts.

I have trouble approving a trade for one of the five best dynasty centerpieces in the league without getting what I view as contracts outside the Top 40. Keep in mind, contract does not = player. I understand a TC member should be as open-minded as possible as to the maximum range of opinions on a player that may not match mine.

However, contracts, specifically the money and the length, are 100% knowable and quantifiable and comparable against a replacement level player freely available in FA for 500k. This league is an outlier among most fantasy leagues in that only 48 players per 5 years can be kept out of FA, has a hard salary cap, and you eat 100% of the dead money, making salary and contracts an extremely large part of a player's value, and that part is NOT subjective. So even with the range of opinions on a player, that range doesn't change the valuation of the player to a large degree due to being tethered to the contract, which can be evaluated objectively.

2) One of the main goals of the TC is protecting a franchise and making it tenable for a new GM to take over

I believe this clause has been triggered by this trade, given that the Lakers traded their entire, promising young team to the Pelicans for AD, sat on his awful contract of 30m, 30m for 2 years, finally gets the maximum value out of AD on a re-sign for 21m 21m 21m 21m 21m, and then promptly trades him away for unproven players.

The league has passed multiple trades reducing this franchise's value, and at some point this has to become somewhat of a focal point, and I believe that time is now.

The Lakers inactivity over 2 years also greatly contributed to this attribution, given that it did not pick up and roster players from FA and those roster spots have a ton of inherent value over time as you rotate through FAs and hit, then you've generated franchise value from thin air (or, more accurately for the cost of 500k minimum).  Had the franchise been active, it's very likely it would have had a lot more inherent value from making full use of its roster spots, and not triggered this part of the TC's mandate.

3) Re-signs, Re-signs, Re-signs

This builds on the previous point of protecting franchise value and being forced into the rare move of not just evaluating a trade in a vacuum (which is normally how it is and should be done) but having to zoom out to the macro when point #2 triggers and look and the franchise's health as a whole.

I think the Tatum trade was negative (less FPPG, older player, 1 less year of rookie scale, #2 option instead of #1) but they're still both young studs who produce in good situations and both require re-signs.

Lakers burned a re-sign on AD, giving him an excellent 5 year contract, plenty of time to build around and contend in 2-3 years. To then immediately trade him in Year 1 of the 5-Year re-sign window FOR 3 PLAYERS WHO ALL REQUIRE RE-SIGNS TO KEEP is bad.

Under the best case scenario, the Lakers would be ready to contend in 2-3 years and not even get to take advantage of the rookie scale of these 3 contracts, which is a large part of their value since they're all unproven (albeit promising) young players. So you don't get the value of the rookie scale, AND you have to burn re-signs on 2 of them (assuming they even pan out), while the other side gets AD for 5 years which requires no re-sign, and can use their re-signs on other players.

4) Subjectivity and Freedom in Running your own Team: A minor digression

Someone sent me an article from The Atlantic on Lonzo Ball and how high they are on him. It's possible, in terms of grading talent, I view these 3 assets on the low end and others on the high end, and that they end up on the high end, and there is a case for passing this trade as-is, and that one should respect the subjective analysis of the GMs involved and mind their own f'ing business and let people run their teams how they want. I 100% understand this viewpoint, and I'm not sure I strongly disagree. Again, I still think denying this trade was a close call for me. Some counterpoints:

A) As mentioned in point #1, contract is ultimately a huge part of these, you're trading contracts, NOT players. So the subjective range of a player's talent doesn't shift the evaluation THAT far, so if you nail the money, you get a good chunk of it right even if your talent evaluation ends up being off by a reasonable amount.

B) Lakers triggered point #2, i.e. the Trade Committee felt the franchise was in serious danger. That the TC is now no longer simply evaluating the trade in a vacuum means the GM has decreased the value of their franchise over time and I think the "freedom" and "subjectivity" issues are no longer factors.

You lose those arguments when we've gotten to this point and we're no longer evaluating your trades in a vacuum. If the Mavs, after creating the most valuable franchise in guru with a ton of superstars and half the 1st Round picks in the league, had given AD up for these picks, I think since it is not triggering worry amongst the TC about the franchise's long-term value, then there is much more leeway in granting "freedom" and "subjectivity" in analysis of the player's talent.

Again, trades should be evaluated in a vacuum, and 99% of them are. But any franchise that has reached this point doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, especially when there is strong evidence that the league was NOT canvassed, trade offers were NOT responded to, and negotiation and counter-offers were not worked on.

5) Final Analysis

I've solicited feedback on my TC decision as this is my first real trade denial ever, and my preference is to always approve, and that is the general motto of the Trade Committee: Stay the hell out of the way of GMs and let them do their thing.

I feel like I will take a bit more into account the subjective range of opinions on players going forward, which I could have done better here.

However, applying that criteria after the fact, I do come to the same conclusion.

I think that triggering the franchise protection clauses built into the TC cause the GM to lose the benefit of the doubt when it comes to "freedom" and "subjectivity" and that one has to simply trust both their own opinion (having been deemed fit to serve on the TC) along with consensus opinion, rather than an outlier opinion of a GM making the trade in question from the POV of the franchise-in-crisis. If the Lakers rebuild goes well and the franchise value increases, then the TC should no longer consider the macro picture and evaluate all their trades in a vacuum and grant that increased range of subjective opinion where if Lakers thinks Lonzo is going to be a super-duper-star and AD is overrated and his situation isn't great, that's his business and we should respect it.  While that may end up being the case, I think the correct decision was made here, and that the TC has done its job, and will give Lakers another chance at extracting more value for trading AD should he choose to do so.

I really feel bad for Blazers, who should rightfully be pissed at getting denied AD after making an excellent trade, and I think under different circumstances this would have been passed.  If AD does get traded again, I do hope he lands him.  Protecting the Lakers, and by extension the viability of all franchises in the league, takes priority.

-Phoenix Suns