MIN-WAS

[Minnesota Timberwolves]

Timberwolves Send:

Robert Covington     $6,500,000     $6,500,000     $6,500,000

Eric Paschall     $500,000     $500,000     $500,000     $500,000

Jeremy Lin    $500,000
Maurice Harkless     $1,000,000
Delon Wright     $1,000,000     $1,000,000
Noah Vonleh     $500,000
Kyle Anderson     $500,000     $500,000

Wizards Send:

Kevin Love     $10,500,000     $10,500,000     $10,500,000

Bryn Forbes     $1,500,000     $1,500,000     $1,500,000

The Wizards shed $1.5 million for the 2019-20 season

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Guess it's time for me to learn to love Kevin.

[Washington Wizards]

I accept. You will be missed Kevin, but I like Paschall as a prospect and I’m hoping that RoCo can bounce back. He’s young enough (26) and I can afford to wait it out to see if he bounces back.

[Dallas Mavericks]

I don't see how this is a good trade for either team but I also don't see how it's particularly bad.

Covington's contract is, at best, fair value and with Kevin Love potentially being traded, who knows what his value will be? It's hard to imagine he has a lot of upside given his history of injuries and age. Paschall is an unknown and Forbes shouldn't be rostered so I'm taking them out of the equation.

I approve

[Phoenix Suns]

Interesting Trade.

The main thing to evaluate is Love for Covington.

10.5m for 33 FPPG, or 6.5m for 26 FPPG. On that basis, Love is more valuable. But Covington has put up 31 FPPG, 29 FPPG, 31 FPPG the past 3 seasons -- one should probably assume some upwards regression. At around 28 FPPG, Covington is equal, which is probably what I'd value him at. There is 29-31 FPPG potential (he's done it 3 straight years), in which case Covington is just straight up more valuable.

Then you have to consider Love is older, injury-prone, and very likely to be traded to a contender. If their playoff spot is secure, how much to they want to play Love down the stretch?

If Covington remains at 26 FPPG, I'd rather have Love. Any regression to 28 and above, I'd rather have Covington.

So it's pretty close-ish on that basis. But that's in a vacuum. A month ago, Paschall would have been the best asset in this trade. Now, eh.... maybe he could carve out 25-28 minutes from the bench. He's looked good. He is the ONLY player with upside in this deal. Love and Covington are who they are, and Bryn Forbes is dead money being traded for dead money (the amounts are too small to consider seriously.)

This trade is, as others have pointed out, pretty lateral.

That said, there IS some differentiation. I think we can reasonably expect some upward regression of 2-4 FPPG from Covington, which makes him a slightly better asset, and Paschall is cheap, locked in, and has upside (he'll probably be nothing, but maybe he becomes something.) So I prefer Wizards side (albeit slightly), although as of right now with Covington's 26 FPPG I prefer Love and I can see Wolves side: more production right now on a better per-dollar basis, and dumping a bit of money.

Pretty fair trade.

I approve.

[Minnesota Timberwolves]

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