Post by Phoenix Suns on Feb 4, 2019 16:07:31 GMT -6
Congrats to the Suns, Thunder, Knicks, Wolves, Mavs, Pelicans, Sixers, and Grizzlies on making the playoffs!
Here are your 2018-2019 Guru Playoff Odds.
This chart shows every team's odds against every potential matchup in the Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals, and Finals.
It also shows the progressive odds of winning each round in Blue, Purple, and Gold. It calculates:
1) The odds of facing an opponent
2) The odds of beating said opponent
In the Quarter-Finals, this is simple: the odds of facing your opponent is 100%. Multiply that by the odds of beating the opponent, and you
get your team's Semi-Finals odds.
Phoenix has a 100% chance of facing Vancouver, and a 90% chance of beating them, giving them 90% odds of advancing to the SF.
This gets more complicated in future rounds. OKC has a 40% chance to beat NOP, and a 50% chance to beat NYK in the Semis. However, their odds
of facing NOP is higher, therefore the odds of taking on NOP is weighed more heavily in the calculation.
The calculation for OKC reaching the Finals is thus:
55% chance of facing NOP * 45% chance of beating NOP = 23%
45% chance of facing NYK * 50% chance of beating NYK = 22%
70% chance of beating PHI in the Quarter-Finals = 70%
(24% + 22%) * 70% = 31% chance of reaching the Final
Injuries are not factored, besides Oladipo being excluded from the calculations. If Clint Capela returns as projected and Kenneth Faried becomes
irrelevant come the Finals, Pelicans loses 5% odds in any potential matchup. If he retains his 30+ FPPG value, he gains 5% odds (i.e., Pelicans
has a 60% chance to beat the Suns in the Finals if Faried is producing 32 FPPG, but this drops to 50% if Faried becomes irrelevant, making it a
toss-up.)
These are the projected odds assuming perfect health, no Olapido, and a 50% chance Faried is relevant in the Guru Finals (he shouldn't be, given
Capela's current timetable.)
Here are your 2018-2019 Guru Playoff Odds.
This chart shows every team's odds against every potential matchup in the Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals, and Finals.
It also shows the progressive odds of winning each round in Blue, Purple, and Gold. It calculates:
1) The odds of facing an opponent
2) The odds of beating said opponent
In the Quarter-Finals, this is simple: the odds of facing your opponent is 100%. Multiply that by the odds of beating the opponent, and you
get your team's Semi-Finals odds.
Phoenix has a 100% chance of facing Vancouver, and a 90% chance of beating them, giving them 90% odds of advancing to the SF.
This gets more complicated in future rounds. OKC has a 40% chance to beat NOP, and a 50% chance to beat NYK in the Semis. However, their odds
of facing NOP is higher, therefore the odds of taking on NOP is weighed more heavily in the calculation.
The calculation for OKC reaching the Finals is thus:
55% chance of facing NOP * 45% chance of beating NOP = 23%
45% chance of facing NYK * 50% chance of beating NYK = 22%
70% chance of beating PHI in the Quarter-Finals = 70%
(24% + 22%) * 70% = 31% chance of reaching the Final
Injuries are not factored, besides Oladipo being excluded from the calculations. If Clint Capela returns as projected and Kenneth Faried becomes
irrelevant come the Finals, Pelicans loses 5% odds in any potential matchup. If he retains his 30+ FPPG value, he gains 5% odds (i.e., Pelicans
has a 60% chance to beat the Suns in the Finals if Faried is producing 32 FPPG, but this drops to 50% if Faried becomes irrelevant, making it a
toss-up.)
These are the projected odds assuming perfect health, no Olapido, and a 50% chance Faried is relevant in the Guru Finals (he shouldn't be, given
Capela's current timetable.)