Post by Phoenix Suns on Oct 30, 2018 13:47:06 GMT -6
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Hello Guru Basketball! I’m the Phoenix Suns, Editor-in-Chief of our inaugural newsletter. I’m here with the Mavs, Celtics, Pelicans, and 76ers, who are ready to talk shop. Thanks for being here guys!
Mavs: Good to be here
Celtics: Thanks for having me.
Philly: Pumped to do this!
Pelicans: Ms. Hoover, I glued my head to my shoulder…
Something tells me Pelicans had adult help building his team. Anyway, let’s get this panel started! Of the non-rookies who averaged over 10 FPPG last season, who do you think makes the biggest leap in terms of pure FPPG?
Mavs: To answer this question, we have to look at their respective teams and age. Looking at their teams gives us an idea of how many minutes are available. Their age reveals how much more potential they have and whether they've peaked - typically around age 28 (last season’s FPPG in parenthesis.)
de'aaron fox (21) - Pretty much same situation as last season, still very young though. I don't see a huge improvement being made over last season. Does not make the biggest leap.
caris levert (24) - Prime candidate. Brooklyn is stupidly deprived of any real talent so even the average prosper in this situation. He's also young and developing so I can definitely see him raising his FPPG. He's a candidate.
jayson tatum (24) - Gordon Hayward has returned so it seems like his minutes would take a slight hit, but he can function as a straight four. Additionally, he's had a full off season to improve on his (not many) weaknesses. He's a candidate.
nikola jokic (41) - Situation has not really changed all that much and Miles Plumlee needs minutes too. Still relatively young and improving, but I don't think he makes the biggest jump in FPPG from the list.
anthony davis (51) - Cousins gone changes the situation to where he should receive more opportunities. It seems like with each passing year, Davis just gets better and better. Solid candidate here.
nikola mirotic (28) - I'll try and ignore the Suns' bias here. Situation has improved with AD playing more center than last season. Turns 28 this season so he's peaking. Solid candidate here too.
joe ingles (24) - Situation has not changed and just turned 31. Bad candidate.
jarret allen (18) - Interesting. As I said before, it doesn't take much to look good in a Brooklyn Nets uniform. He's still 20 years old and has a full off season of development. However, he's more defensively oriented than offense. Therefore, I'd have to say he's a bad candidate for largest FPPG increase.
josh richardson (25) - No. Dion Waiters is slated to come back any day now and you've got Dwyane Wade over there too.
josh hart (14) - Nope, the Lakers situation is pretty crazy right now and I don't think there's much stability (if any) to guarantee minutes for Hart.
OG anunoby (11) - More defensive than offensive and that's not worth very much in a points league. He's also got Kawhi and Norman Powell there. I'd say no.
frank ntilikina (13) - No, Trey Burke is a better player in my opinion and is more deserving of minutes. Ntilikina is a rotational player, not quite sold on him being a starter though.
That leaves: Caris LeVert, Jayson Tatum, AD, and Mirotic.
I asked for three names, not your life story. And that’s four. Are you and Pelicans huffing the same glue?
Pelicans: I object to being grouped with Mavs. I huff high quality European glue that is made by Trappist monks in the Belgian Alps that isn’t available in America.
As to the question, I'll take Caris as the biggest jump. Purely because he is the lowest scoring guy from last year I can gamble will be able to score well this year at a sustainable rate. Hart/Allen/Fox/Anunoby/Ntilkikina all have issues preventing them from scoring super high. And I think Caris can definitely average 36, if he stays fit...
You named one person. I need three.
Celtics: There are quite a few guys who I think are going to take a solid and consistent jump in FPPG this year. Specifically, I like Levert, Hart, Anunoby, and Tatum. Rozier is another guy I see capable of making a jump this year, but he likely won't see the opportunity to leap the growth some of these other players might see. The one guy that I expect to take the biggest leap this year, in terms of FPPG, is De’Aaron Fox. He will get the minutes and freedom with Sacramento. He's got nice shooting splits, solid distribution skills, and will snag a couple boards a game. I'd like to see him reduce some of the careless TO's but that will come in time.
That’s six…
Philly: Hart, Allen, Hart.
You named Hart twice. Is there a glue epidemic I’m not aware of? I asked you each to name 3 players. You named 4, 1, 6, and 2.
Celtics: You don’t own me.
Pelicans: I march to my own tune. Specifically, John William’s The Imperial March.
Mavs: 4 is the new 3.
So what do you guys think was the best trade of the off-season?
Mavs: Get the fuck out of here with this question. You damn well know it's the PHX-BOS trade (Ref: basketballguru.proboards.com/thread/1190/phx-bos)
My boy Bam Adebayo is ready to be unleashed at a moment’s notice and Whiteside's character just has so many question marks. Is he worth paying fair value for, knowing he has so many issues attached to him? I'd say no so I think you won pretty big. Also, Bam is the future.
Philly: Celtics/phx, the Mirotic/thj/whiteside trade
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Celtics doesn’t agree with those assessments.
Celtics: Yes.
I think the best trade over the offseason was by the T-Wolves trading Myles Turner and a 2021 first round draft pick for the #6, #9, #20, #22 picks in the 2018 draft. Myles Turner isn’t off to the hottest start this year, but there’s no doubting his talent. But, at a 24.2 fppg average, there is something to be desired to make the trade worth it for Dallas. He’s not a high-volume rebounder, doesn’t get more than a couple assists a game, and not very many steals either. He can score, and he’ll block a couple shots per game. I see a high floor, but not a star kind of ceiling. On the other hand, the #6 and #9 picks were turned into Jaren Jackson Jr. and Michael-Porter Jr. JJJ has already proven to be a valuable piece both for the Grizzlies and for fantasy scoring averaging 29.9 fppg, albeit I a small sample size. He’s got dual eligibility and is under control for 5 years on a rookie contract. Where Dallas must decide on a resign to keep Turner around, the Wolves have JJJ and MPJ locked up 5 years a piece. MPJ is an unproven commodity but I have faith that he will be more valuable than a future pick. Overall, I don’t think you could say that the Mav’s lost big time as Myles Turner is a great talent, but I can’t help but look at the fantasy value that the T-Wolves extracted from him in both FPPG potential, and years of control.
Pelicans? Whiteside or Turner trade?
Pelicans: The blockbuster Portland Chicago deal! So many huge names involved. One team got Dwight, Butler and Capela, the other got LeVert, Fultz, Murray, and a 1st rounder. Bloody loved that one!
Fair enough. What was the best free agency signing of the off-season?
Philly: Robert Covington, obviously.
Celtics: This one is a toss-up for me between Schroder, Lowry, and Osman. There were a few other good value pickups out there, but these stood out as great signings to me. Schroder started out hot, but his role behind Westbrook will likely limit his ceiling. Lowry is a stud, especially at 7.5 mil, but not sure he will be the same at 34 and 35 years old, for that reason I decided to go with Cedi Osman as the best off-season FA signing. Surprisingly, I thought this was an overpay at the time but the kids 23, shoots the 3-ball at a decent clip and fills the stat sheet. Seems to be a good formula for fantasy, locked in for four years at 3.5 mil cheaper than the Lowry signing. Wasn't a particularly strong FA class though, and one could easily say Lowry if he plays well deeper into his 30's.
Pelicans: Cedi Osman, Portland. Great signing. Honourable mention to the best/worst signing of the period Kyle Lowry, Denver Nuggets. Best in terms of fppg, worst in terms of Lowry at 32 getting a 4 year guaranteed deal for $7.5m!!! Bonkers!
I really like the Cedi Osman signing, too. Definitely my favorite of the bunch.
Mavs: It looks like the off season of the point guards. Derrick Rose. Dennis Schroder, and Kyle Lowry all look like great signings so far. I'd only knock Kyle Lowry because the tail end of that contract is going to get pretty nasty but judging from the massive amount of trades Denver has been able to swing this offseason, I wouldn't count it past him if he moved Lowry soon. Rose is great for $0.5m but I think Schroder is better. It's between Lowry and Schroder for me and I'll give Schroder the upper hand and say he was the best signing just because OKC really needs a backup point guard to Russ and it looks like Schroder is clicking and performing at an excellent rate and should exceed his contract valuation for the duration of it.
Yeah I’m surprised Schroder maintained so much of his value, looking like a fantastic signing.
Mavs: Definitely.
Let’s shift gears and talk post-season. Can you guys list the 8 Guru Playoff teams of the 2018-2019 Season?
Celtics: I’m going to say…
- Suns
- Knicks
- 76ers
- Wolves
- Nuggets
- Pelicans
- Mavericks
- Raptors
Mavs: This question was conventionally lacking the words "in order" so I'll just go ahead and throw a list at you.
Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors
Dallas Mavericks
Minnesota Timberwolves
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Pelicans: In no particular order: 76ers, Blazers, Suns, Nuggets, Mavs, Wolves, Raptors, Knicks
Blazers? Lol… are we sure Pelicans isn’t a Drinking Bird hitting a keyboard?
Philly: In no order: knicks, Phoenix, Philly, mavs, minny, Toronto, Nola, Denver is my dark horse.
Looks like Knicks, Suns, Wolves, 76ers, Raptors, Mavs, and NUGGETS are the consensus 7 playoff teams, with the Pelicans and Thunder fighting for the final spot. Sonics is NOT going to be happy…
Philly: Was he ever?
A question for the philosophers. But let’s stick to your playoff answers for a moment. Who finishes first and last this season, and why?
Mavs: phew I can do this. Suns first and the Portland TankBlazers last.
Celtics: While I could see one or two other teams sneak in, I think the easiest answer here for first place is the Suns. Their combination of depth and star power is exactly what you need to win matchups throughout the season. Depth to sustain, and stars like Giannis, Kawhi, Booker, Aldridge to pack a punch when needed.
For last place I could see myself (I hope... ahem...) being there because of a lack of depth, but I believe by season's end, the bucks will be driving a big fat tank into that sweet Milwaukee dirt.
Driving a big fat tank into that sweet Milwaukee dirt is how @bucks describes sex with a woman.
Celtics: LOL
Philly: Phoenix, deep, talented roster, 2 best players play in the east. Boston, he’ll run ~12 players most of the season and lose on purpose.
Pelicans: First - Raptors (If his roster can get fit, Jesus help us). Last – Bucks, but the Lakers are trying to trade their way down.
Turning a Porsche into a paperclip. Outside of Ayton and Doncic, who you do see being the most promising rookie from the draft?
Mavs: TRIPLE TRAE
Philly: Trae young. He’s the starting pg and will get as many minutes as he can handle. He’s the most promising FANTASY player, outside of ayton and doncic.
Pelicans: Trae. Young.
Celtics: (Real Life) I think the most promising rookie outside of Ayton or Doncic has gotta be Mo Bamba. His combination of length and skill is elite. I think he'll shoot the 3 at a decent enough clip to be a modern big (not super stretchy, just respectable in modern offenses), and I think he has just enough rope on the Magic to slowly but surely develop into a star big man.
(Fantasy) At least out of the gate, I believe Trae Young is going to stuff the hell out of the statsheet. He can handle the ball a ton on a team looking to develop rather than compete. Even when he's not scoring well, his assists, boards, etc. should give him a good floor to stand on and a high ceiling to reach at.
Looks like the whole panel is in agreement. All aboard the Triple Trae Train!
Pelicans: Choo-choo!
In the real NBA, who do you feel stands the best chance of toppling the Warriors?
Philly: Rockets if they land butler. Otherwise, Celtics, then raptors.
Celtics: If I had to tell you who right now could most likely take on the Warriors in a 7 game series, it would have to be a toss up between the Pelicans out west and the Raptors in the east (edge to the Raptors they look rejuvenated with Kawhi, and Lowry is looking as good as ever.) Luckily the season isn't 6 games long...
That’s the least homerish thing I’ve ever heard you say.
Mavs: Celtics took Toronto over Boston? He’s definitely been huffing that Elmer’s…
Celtics: Wait, I didn’t finish!
Oh.
Celtics: Like I said, LUCKILY THE SEASON ISN’T 6 games long.
I think the team most likely to topple the Warriors this year, based on recent matchup history, style of play on both ends, personnel, and coaching, and you didn't see this one coming, the Boston Celtics. I know what you're thinking, "The Celtics, picking the Celtics! No fucking way! This is gonna be an intellectual, unbiased, fantastic analysis." I know, I know, here me out.
I don’t have Ignore permissions in Discord, so we don’t have much choice…
Pelicans: I’m going to take a pee break while Celtics unfurls his Odyssean sails and writes his epic. Get it? Because he’s a Homer!
Celtics: Over the past three seasons Brad Stevens has driven vastly different Boston teams to a 3-3 record against Golden State, including a 2-1 record at Golden State. Not a huge sample size, but Stevens seems to know how to go after the Warriors style offense. Stevens is one of the only coaches in the league that I can see going toe-to-toe with Kerr in a 7 game series. They have one of the best, if not the best defensive squads in the league. The amount of length in their starting lineup, Irving, Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Horford, means they can switch anything, as well as matchup against Golden State's small ball lineups. The C's have also been one of the best teams at defending the 3pt shot under Brad Stevens (I know this is highly variable, but it’s too much of a trend to ignore).
Overall, I think if any team is going to do it, it’s a fully healthy and functioning Celtics. The real question is whether or not they can be fully healthy and functioning. If they can, they can't win on defense alone. There is reason to believe that their offense will start to come along with 5 40% 3pt shooters in the starting lineup, amazing offensive talents in Irving, Tatum, Hayward, and defensive studs in Horford, Baynes, Smart, Morris, Theis, and Rozier to balance out the floor. Home court would be huge in this scenario and the warriors are likely not as concerned with securing it with their experience, and the C's will likely be chasing as good a record as possible in what is really their first real season with this squad.
Pelicans: I’m back. Topping the Warriors this year will be one of two teams. 1: Raptors. Fuck they look awesome so far this season. 2: Nuggets, my man Jokic is an unstoppable force.
Mavs: No team wins a 7 game series against the Warriors but I think the Raptors put up a challenge (ultimately losing) assuming Kawhi is at 100%. Philadelphia is too young and I'm not sold on Kyrie Irving as a franchise player or staying healthy.
Nobody beats GS in a seven game series though.
No Rockets/Pelicans?
Mavs: No houston/pelicans. Paul is older and I think Melo makes their team worse, not better. Pelicans maybe if they had a healthy Cousins but Jrue and AD just don't cut it, Mirotic isn't consistent enough to get it done.
Excluding the Knicks, Pelicans, Suns, Mavs, Toronto, Minnesota, and your own team, if you could start with one current Guru roster in Dynasty, which franchise would you want to own long-term, and why?
Mavs: Boston Celtics. Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Rudy Gobert, and Harrison Barnes. I can do something with it. (Notice how I left out Hassan Whiteside?)
Celtics: This was a tough, and interesting question. Ultimately in terms of flexibility and dynasty potential, I'd have to go with OKC. I based my decision on the fact that OKC has a top tier stud needed to be elite (Kevin Durant) locked up for 3 more years. Along with KD he has great long-term pieces in De'Aaron Fox, Kent Bazemore, Kevin Knox, Wiggins, Thad Young, Hernangomez, etc. Along with some of these nice pieces he has two of his resigns left, 10 mil in cap space, and almost no dead money. You could take this team in a lot of directions to maintain long term success.
Philly: Bucks. I’d want a challenge and being a shitty team in the middle is the biggest challenge. The worst teams have assets or promising rookies, he has neither.
Pelicans: Raptors - Kemba, DeRozan, Valanciunas, Wall, Draymond, Porzingis, Murray. That is a rock solid core. Just need a few more guys to get some good points and you are already in the mix.
I said excluding the Raptors.
Pelicans: What was the question again?
Nevermind.
Let’s mix things up a bit and ask a silly question. Who do you suspect is the best looking Guru GM IRL?
Mavs: I think I've seen Seattle's picture and he didn't look too shabby. He seems like he has a sense of style too. Let's go with Seattle and get off this topic.
Celtics: This is my opinion and only my opinion, a completely independent thought. I do not have a gun to my head, do not send help, baseball is not a sport, don't call the police, my family is okay. The Suns have GOT to be the best-looking GM in the league without a doubt. His wise and handsome face is up there with the best of them.
Couldn’t have said it better myself : )
Pelicans: Bucks, doesn't matter how he looks. He is a doctor honey. Invest now.
Philly: Philly. Denver tells me this when he’s drunk.
Getting some real Bert and Ernie overtones here.
Philly: Bert and Ernie are just friends.
Uh-huh.
Okay, final question, then I’ll let you guys go. What's the best Guru contract (of a player producing less than 40 FPPG) that you wish you had on your team?
Mavs: I thought I had most of them but I'd say KAT. I suspect he's a strong reason for Minnesota's success too. Weakening Wolves further by taking KAT would be a nice added bonus. If Embiid wasn't averaging more than 40 FPPG, it would be him.
Both those players average well above 40 FPPG…
Pelicans: This is what happens you sniff cheap American glue…
Mavs: Gimme ol' Porzingod in that case, if I can't have KAT. Porzingis is not 40 FPPG yet.
That’s fair. Celtics?
Celtics: I think this one's easy. Deandre Ayton is on a rookie contract. That's 5 years of control, 3 years of options, and at MOST $8.5 mil which equates to a 30ffpg re-sign. He's currently averaging 37.4 fppg.
Pelicans: Producing less than 40fppg per game, this year or last year. If last year, then I'm nominating my man Bradley Beal for $10.5m. Since he is a smidge over 40 this year, I will take Jingles please.
Philly: Booker. Still on his rookie deal, on a bad team so he’ll get shots up, still young.
Devin Booker was the correct answer.
Thanks to our panel for participating! I’ll host another roundtable with four different GMs for the November edition, where hopefully less of our panelists will be addicted to what the kids refer to as Huffing Hoof.