Post by Denver Nuggets on Sept 1, 2018 23:21:35 GMT -6
Demarcus Cousins was born on August 13, 1990. He was my hero. He tore his ACL on January 26, 2018, with mere seconds left in a close contest with the Houston Rockets:
At the time of his injury, Boogie was experiencing another fantastic year in fantasy basketball. In the Basketball Guru league, he was averaging 50.75 fantasy points per game. Only 6 players even approached these numbers: Russ (52), Bron (52), AD (51), Boogie (50), Harden (50), ad Giannis (49). Below that tier were 7 players who each scored between 42 and 44 fppg. Only 14 players averaged 40 fppg on the entire year.
Prior to his injury, Boogie was an unquestioned top 6 player in the league. After his injury . . . does he remain in the top 14? Pursuant to the Guru Rules, the resign value for a player averaging 50 fppg is $21,000,000.00. Only 6 players in the league would qualify for such a resign after this past year. Only 14 players would receive a resign contract for a value in excess of $15,000,000.00. The following represents Denver's concern in providing Boogie with a new contract in the amount of $21,000,000.00, and justification for a reduction in his cost to the Nuggets franchise.
Boogie has played 9 seasons in the league, and logged over 17,000 minutes on the court. He just turned 28. A five year contract would place Boogie on the Nuggets through his age 32 season. He will play his 10th season in the association while coming off of a major injury, one of the most devastating for a basketball player to endure. A resigned contract is designed to benefit the team that utilizes it to retain their core players without engaging in a bidding war during free agency. Denver is willing to expend this asset on Boogie in light of his past accomplishments, but not without recognizing and accommodating the severe risks inherent in the decision.
As a rookie, Boogie played 81 games. Since, he respectively played: 64, 75, 71, 59, 65, 72, 72, and 48 in the year of his injury. The man can reasonably be expected to miss 1 out of every 7 or 8 games regardless of his present injury. However, in his current predicament, any suggestion that he plays the 18-19 season before Christmas is foolhardy. He has acknowledged on numerous occasions that signing with the Warriors has provided him with the luxury of not rushing into action. www.rotoworld.com/recent/nba/1715/demarcus-cousins. A return at Christmas would result in approximately 30-35 games missed. He can be expected to sit for back to backs and in a number of other game situations as the season (and his rehab) progresses, including each and every blowout win in which the Warriors are involved (which may occur a lot). If he were to miss 41 games (which is utilized for its convenience), his value on a 5 year resign would be 1/10th less than otherwise even if he were to return to full form and not regress in any respect in connection with his Achilles injury. Of course, we know that is unlikely to be the case.
In a recent Tim Cato article for SBNation, the author noted: "According to a 2013 medical study that identified 18 players who suffered major Achilles injuries over a 23-year span (1988-2011), seven players never returned to the league. Players who returned missed an average of 56 games and saw their PER decline in their first and second seasons back. A 2015 CBS Sports article found that among 14 players who returned from Achilles injuries since 1992, they averaged fewer minutes while both their field goal and three-point percentages dropped, on average. There are very few complete success stories."
In fact, a Deadspin article cited by Tim Kato addressing the same injury in NBA players (below), acknowledges that "Dominique Wilkins [is] the only player to return completely to form after the injury."
deadspin.com/how-an-achilles-tear-affects-nba-players-or-why-kobe-472944871
For those who do return to the sport following the injury, they experienced not only significant recovery times (on average missing 56 games), but significant drops in production. The Deadspin article above identifies a comprehensive study of NBA players to have suffered the injury at the time of the study's release. It found the average player returning from injury played 5.21 fewer minutes per game in their first year back, and 4.42 minutes less in their second season turning from injury. The player's returning from injury also lost an average of 4.64 PER from their pre-injury form in the first year back and 4.28 in the second year back. The same study found players were often predictably less efficient as well.
To demonstrate this effect, consider that Boogie has averaged 34.1, 34.6, and 34.2 minutes per game in the past three seasons, respectively. I have every reason to believe that he will play even fewer minutes on the Warriors than on an average team in light of their talent level. The Warriors simply have less incentive to rush a player back from injury than anyone. Nevertheless, if Boogie were to experience the average 5.21 minutes per game loss in his return season, he would play less than 30 minutes per night. This represents an approximately 15% reduction in his playing time, and would correspond to an approximately 15% reduction in his production in purely raw numbers, not to mention any corresponding reduction in efficiency.
Ultimately, it can not be seriously urged that his injury will not seriously impact his production. www.rotoworld.com/articles/nba/81298/47/free-agency-winners-and-losers. ("Counsins usage rate will be far lower than its been at any other point in his career. "limit[ed] minutes and prevent[] him from playing in back-to-backs."). Even if he were to return to his old form following this next year, his 18-19 season is largely a lost cause. He will provide limited value, in limited minutes, for a limited number of games. His salary this year will be largely dead weight. At his resign value, Boogie's contract will seriously impair the Nuggets' flexibility and ability to rebuild the roster if he is unable to return fair value.
There is no perfect comparison or case study to provide clarity to Boogie's current situation. We have no means of determining whether he will ever be the same player as he was before the injury. We do know, however, that few players are. Elton Brand is often utilized as the best comparison for Boogie's recovery in the media. Elton Brand's achilles injury derailed his career.
Like Boogie, Brand was a devastating All Star forward entering his age 28 year when he suffered his injury. He was coming off a 20 and 9 season with 3 assists, a steal and 2 blocks per game. This was good for approximately 42 fppg under Guru's fantasy scoring system. Brand and Boogie both shot with their right hand, and preferred to jump off their left leg (the one which suffered the injured Achilles). Brand was never a great leaper. Like Boogie, he relied on his agility and size to get into position for rebounds and points.
Boogie's recovery time will be far quicker than Brand's. Medical advancements will assure it. But the effects on Brand were profound, and IF Boogie were to experience Brand's losses, he will never justify a resign at all -- better to let him sign on the open market and maintain the flexibility afforded by the open resign.
Brand's first season back saw his efficiency drop precipitously: His minutes fell from 38 mpg to 32. His efg% dropped from .533 to .447. His points from 20.5 to 13.8. His assists from 2.9 to 1.3. He never averaged more than 2 assists per game again despite having met that mark every year up until his injury. 3 years following his injury, Brand's points "recovered" to 15 per game. His fppg under the Guru system dropped from 42 per game before injury to 29 in the first year back. It was roughly 26 fppg two years removed from his injury.
There is no way to know how Boogie will return from injury. At this point, I have drafted this post for approximately two to three hours. I could spend hours more with a wealth of information both supporting and detracting from the above points. We could argue the medical science itself. But I believe that doing so would lead to more misinformed, generalized, and conclusory opinions than real discussion considering the majority of us have no thorough understanding of the complex forces at work in his rehabilitation. I acknowledge that advances in medical science will result in Boogie receiving fantastic care from his physicians -- far better than what was afforded to Brand, and better even than that care received by Kobe, Wes Matthews, or rudy Gay. In doing so, I am confident the trade committee will appreciate that the injury is nonetheless one which will have some affect on Boogie's production. Further, we cannot assume that the impact will not be significant. In consideration of these mutual acknowledgements, as well as both the significant risks and rewards inherent in his resign, Denver is willing to offer Boogie a 5 year contract for 17 million per year with a team option on the 5th season. This dollar figure represents a serious investment on the part of the Nuggets, a vote of confidence in its injured franchise player. It also mitigates that risk to some degree in recouping 4 million less than if Boogie had not been injured at all.
The 17 million dollar figure is significant in several regards. A 17 million resign value equates to 42 fppg, an 8 point, and 19% reduction from the year before the injury. Note, however, that Boogie scored 49 fppg, not 50, in the 16-17 season, and 48, not 49, in the 15-16 campaign. More importantly, however, is the simple argument that Boogie's 18-19' season will be one of rehabilitation and recovery, rather than production. Golden State will be preserving Boogie for the playoffs, and he will be ramping up his activity precisely as the Guru playoffs begin, at which point he will be useless to the Denver Nuggets, a lottery team. While rudimentary, an analysis of his value which assumes he has little to no value this year (receiving an assigned value of 0), and yet returns to his peak form, i.e., 50fppg, in every year thereafter (an assigned value of 1), would suggest that in raw total value, he can be expected to lose 1/5th of his value over the course of a 5 year contract as a result of this injury. A 20% reduction of his max resign value would equate to an approximate 4 million reduction in his resign value and would spread his poor performance next year over the course of his contract.
If Boogie were to return to a form which warranted a 20 plus million dollar contract, it would require he be one of the top 6 players in the league, a tall order. But IF he were to do it, we can agree it won't be before the 19-20' season. if Denver is to receive the benefit of its resign savings from the 19-20' season onwards, the trade committee can take solace knowing that it lost value on that contract during the 18-19 season. Moreover, the present year is one in which cap space is more valuable than it has or will be at any point in the near past or future. Tying up 17 million in that salary will seriously hamper any efforts to improve the roster as constructed.
At 17 million, Boogie would be the highest paid player on a great number of teams in the league. Of those who are paid more, most are within the top 13 scoring players in the league, i.e., those who would actually justify such a contract, except those players are not coming off of a major injury. Boogie is unlikely to be a top 6 player ever again. He may break into the top 13-20, but it will not be easy.
During a recent AMA on Reddit, Josh Lloyd of BBM opined that Boogie would be a top 30 fantasy producer upon his return. During the T-Wolves' recent 30 man dynasty draft (which also happens to be in a points league), Boogie went 31st. In response, Phoenix stated: "Boogie sounds like a terrible pick." At 17 million, Boogie would be the 12th highest paid player in the league. Far more than the 30th highest paid player. Together, himself and Nikola Jokic would be the 2nd highest paid centers in the league (behind AD).
With intention, while looking at comparisons for the Nuggets' requested resign value, Jokic comes immediately to mind. By any realistic metric, Jokic is the better dynasty fantasy player than Boogie following Boogie's injury. He is much younger, and his fppg average steadily increased as he became more comfortable being "the guy" on Denver's roster. During the last month of the 17-18' season, a 15 game sample size, Jokic averaged 50.4fppg. Jokic was just resigned for 17 million by the Pelicans.
If you require further research, Reddit has been weighing Boogie's chances of recovery ad nauseum for months.
At the time of his injury, Boogie was experiencing another fantastic year in fantasy basketball. In the Basketball Guru league, he was averaging 50.75 fantasy points per game. Only 6 players even approached these numbers: Russ (52), Bron (52), AD (51), Boogie (50), Harden (50), ad Giannis (49). Below that tier were 7 players who each scored between 42 and 44 fppg. Only 14 players averaged 40 fppg on the entire year.
Prior to his injury, Boogie was an unquestioned top 6 player in the league. After his injury . . . does he remain in the top 14? Pursuant to the Guru Rules, the resign value for a player averaging 50 fppg is $21,000,000.00. Only 6 players in the league would qualify for such a resign after this past year. Only 14 players would receive a resign contract for a value in excess of $15,000,000.00. The following represents Denver's concern in providing Boogie with a new contract in the amount of $21,000,000.00, and justification for a reduction in his cost to the Nuggets franchise.
Boogie has played 9 seasons in the league, and logged over 17,000 minutes on the court. He just turned 28. A five year contract would place Boogie on the Nuggets through his age 32 season. He will play his 10th season in the association while coming off of a major injury, one of the most devastating for a basketball player to endure. A resigned contract is designed to benefit the team that utilizes it to retain their core players without engaging in a bidding war during free agency. Denver is willing to expend this asset on Boogie in light of his past accomplishments, but not without recognizing and accommodating the severe risks inherent in the decision.
As a rookie, Boogie played 81 games. Since, he respectively played: 64, 75, 71, 59, 65, 72, 72, and 48 in the year of his injury. The man can reasonably be expected to miss 1 out of every 7 or 8 games regardless of his present injury. However, in his current predicament, any suggestion that he plays the 18-19 season before Christmas is foolhardy. He has acknowledged on numerous occasions that signing with the Warriors has provided him with the luxury of not rushing into action. www.rotoworld.com/recent/nba/1715/demarcus-cousins. A return at Christmas would result in approximately 30-35 games missed. He can be expected to sit for back to backs and in a number of other game situations as the season (and his rehab) progresses, including each and every blowout win in which the Warriors are involved (which may occur a lot). If he were to miss 41 games (which is utilized for its convenience), his value on a 5 year resign would be 1/10th less than otherwise even if he were to return to full form and not regress in any respect in connection with his Achilles injury. Of course, we know that is unlikely to be the case.
In a recent Tim Cato article for SBNation, the author noted: "According to a 2013 medical study that identified 18 players who suffered major Achilles injuries over a 23-year span (1988-2011), seven players never returned to the league. Players who returned missed an average of 56 games and saw their PER decline in their first and second seasons back. A 2015 CBS Sports article found that among 14 players who returned from Achilles injuries since 1992, they averaged fewer minutes while both their field goal and three-point percentages dropped, on average. There are very few complete success stories."
In fact, a Deadspin article cited by Tim Kato addressing the same injury in NBA players (below), acknowledges that "Dominique Wilkins [is] the only player to return completely to form after the injury."
deadspin.com/how-an-achilles-tear-affects-nba-players-or-why-kobe-472944871
For those who do return to the sport following the injury, they experienced not only significant recovery times (on average missing 56 games), but significant drops in production. The Deadspin article above identifies a comprehensive study of NBA players to have suffered the injury at the time of the study's release. It found the average player returning from injury played 5.21 fewer minutes per game in their first year back, and 4.42 minutes less in their second season turning from injury. The player's returning from injury also lost an average of 4.64 PER from their pre-injury form in the first year back and 4.28 in the second year back. The same study found players were often predictably less efficient as well.
To demonstrate this effect, consider that Boogie has averaged 34.1, 34.6, and 34.2 minutes per game in the past three seasons, respectively. I have every reason to believe that he will play even fewer minutes on the Warriors than on an average team in light of their talent level. The Warriors simply have less incentive to rush a player back from injury than anyone. Nevertheless, if Boogie were to experience the average 5.21 minutes per game loss in his return season, he would play less than 30 minutes per night. This represents an approximately 15% reduction in his playing time, and would correspond to an approximately 15% reduction in his production in purely raw numbers, not to mention any corresponding reduction in efficiency.
Ultimately, it can not be seriously urged that his injury will not seriously impact his production. www.rotoworld.com/articles/nba/81298/47/free-agency-winners-and-losers. ("Counsins usage rate will be far lower than its been at any other point in his career. "limit[ed] minutes and prevent[] him from playing in back-to-backs."). Even if he were to return to his old form following this next year, his 18-19 season is largely a lost cause. He will provide limited value, in limited minutes, for a limited number of games. His salary this year will be largely dead weight. At his resign value, Boogie's contract will seriously impair the Nuggets' flexibility and ability to rebuild the roster if he is unable to return fair value.
There is no perfect comparison or case study to provide clarity to Boogie's current situation. We have no means of determining whether he will ever be the same player as he was before the injury. We do know, however, that few players are. Elton Brand is often utilized as the best comparison for Boogie's recovery in the media. Elton Brand's achilles injury derailed his career.
Like Boogie, Brand was a devastating All Star forward entering his age 28 year when he suffered his injury. He was coming off a 20 and 9 season with 3 assists, a steal and 2 blocks per game. This was good for approximately 42 fppg under Guru's fantasy scoring system. Brand and Boogie both shot with their right hand, and preferred to jump off their left leg (the one which suffered the injured Achilles). Brand was never a great leaper. Like Boogie, he relied on his agility and size to get into position for rebounds and points.
Boogie's recovery time will be far quicker than Brand's. Medical advancements will assure it. But the effects on Brand were profound, and IF Boogie were to experience Brand's losses, he will never justify a resign at all -- better to let him sign on the open market and maintain the flexibility afforded by the open resign.
Brand's first season back saw his efficiency drop precipitously: His minutes fell from 38 mpg to 32. His efg% dropped from .533 to .447. His points from 20.5 to 13.8. His assists from 2.9 to 1.3. He never averaged more than 2 assists per game again despite having met that mark every year up until his injury. 3 years following his injury, Brand's points "recovered" to 15 per game. His fppg under the Guru system dropped from 42 per game before injury to 29 in the first year back. It was roughly 26 fppg two years removed from his injury.
There is no way to know how Boogie will return from injury. At this point, I have drafted this post for approximately two to three hours. I could spend hours more with a wealth of information both supporting and detracting from the above points. We could argue the medical science itself. But I believe that doing so would lead to more misinformed, generalized, and conclusory opinions than real discussion considering the majority of us have no thorough understanding of the complex forces at work in his rehabilitation. I acknowledge that advances in medical science will result in Boogie receiving fantastic care from his physicians -- far better than what was afforded to Brand, and better even than that care received by Kobe, Wes Matthews, or rudy Gay. In doing so, I am confident the trade committee will appreciate that the injury is nonetheless one which will have some affect on Boogie's production. Further, we cannot assume that the impact will not be significant. In consideration of these mutual acknowledgements, as well as both the significant risks and rewards inherent in his resign, Denver is willing to offer Boogie a 5 year contract for 17 million per year with a team option on the 5th season. This dollar figure represents a serious investment on the part of the Nuggets, a vote of confidence in its injured franchise player. It also mitigates that risk to some degree in recouping 4 million less than if Boogie had not been injured at all.
The 17 million dollar figure is significant in several regards. A 17 million resign value equates to 42 fppg, an 8 point, and 19% reduction from the year before the injury. Note, however, that Boogie scored 49 fppg, not 50, in the 16-17 season, and 48, not 49, in the 15-16 campaign. More importantly, however, is the simple argument that Boogie's 18-19' season will be one of rehabilitation and recovery, rather than production. Golden State will be preserving Boogie for the playoffs, and he will be ramping up his activity precisely as the Guru playoffs begin, at which point he will be useless to the Denver Nuggets, a lottery team. While rudimentary, an analysis of his value which assumes he has little to no value this year (receiving an assigned value of 0), and yet returns to his peak form, i.e., 50fppg, in every year thereafter (an assigned value of 1), would suggest that in raw total value, he can be expected to lose 1/5th of his value over the course of a 5 year contract as a result of this injury. A 20% reduction of his max resign value would equate to an approximate 4 million reduction in his resign value and would spread his poor performance next year over the course of his contract.
If Boogie were to return to a form which warranted a 20 plus million dollar contract, it would require he be one of the top 6 players in the league, a tall order. But IF he were to do it, we can agree it won't be before the 19-20' season. if Denver is to receive the benefit of its resign savings from the 19-20' season onwards, the trade committee can take solace knowing that it lost value on that contract during the 18-19 season. Moreover, the present year is one in which cap space is more valuable than it has or will be at any point in the near past or future. Tying up 17 million in that salary will seriously hamper any efforts to improve the roster as constructed.
At 17 million, Boogie would be the highest paid player on a great number of teams in the league. Of those who are paid more, most are within the top 13 scoring players in the league, i.e., those who would actually justify such a contract, except those players are not coming off of a major injury. Boogie is unlikely to be a top 6 player ever again. He may break into the top 13-20, but it will not be easy.
During a recent AMA on Reddit, Josh Lloyd of BBM opined that Boogie would be a top 30 fantasy producer upon his return. During the T-Wolves' recent 30 man dynasty draft (which also happens to be in a points league), Boogie went 31st. In response, Phoenix stated: "Boogie sounds like a terrible pick." At 17 million, Boogie would be the 12th highest paid player in the league. Far more than the 30th highest paid player. Together, himself and Nikola Jokic would be the 2nd highest paid centers in the league (behind AD).
With intention, while looking at comparisons for the Nuggets' requested resign value, Jokic comes immediately to mind. By any realistic metric, Jokic is the better dynasty fantasy player than Boogie following Boogie's injury. He is much younger, and his fppg average steadily increased as he became more comfortable being "the guy" on Denver's roster. During the last month of the 17-18' season, a 15 game sample size, Jokic averaged 50.4fppg. Jokic was just resigned for 17 million by the Pelicans.
If you require further research, Reddit has been weighing Boogie's chances of recovery ad nauseum for months.